Former F1 racer Juan Pablo Montoya is struggling to see the “downside” to Sergio Perez amid his likely Red Bull exit.

Perez suffered a troubling fourth season with Red Bull in F1 2024, his fourth podium of the season at April’s Chinese Grand Prix also his last, as he finished on 152 points to team-mate Max Verstappen’s 437 as the Dutchman secured a fourth straight Drivers’ Championship.

Red Bull asked about Sergio Perez: “Where is the downside?”

But, versus the more balanced driver pairings of McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, plus Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, Red Bull were unable to retain their Constructors’ crown, dropping to P3 with Perez now expected to be replaced ahead of F1 2025.

However, an announcement is yet to arrive, with talk of a stand-off between both parties regarding the terms of exit swirling, a split which could cost Red Bull $78 million, as per ex-Bridgestone engineer Kees van de Grint.

But, Montoya, a seven-time F1 grand prix winner, is at a loss as for why Red Bull want to replace Perez. In addition to the financial benefits, Montoya proposed that Perez has also actually proven a sporting benefit for Red Bull in F1 2024.

“Funnily enough by them finishing third, they’re going to get more windtunnel time and everything for the ’26 car,” Montoya told Vision4Sport, referencing the sliding scale which allocates more windtunnel time to teams the lower down the Constructors’ Championship order they finish.

“So, is it that bad having Checo there? They have the World Champion and they have more windtunnel time!

“And what they’re losing by not winning the Constructors’, they’re probably making up with Checo’s merchandise and Red Bull sales and the money he’s bringing. So where is the downside? And you have a team dedicated to one driver.”

Rumours of the Red Bull axe were already looming over Perez going into the F1 2024 summer break, though Red Bull opted to stick with their line-ups, having overlooked candidates such as Carlos Sainz – formerly of the Red Bull fold – who knew before the season began that his F1 2025 spot was to be taken by Lewis Hamilton.

But, Montoya does not believe that re-uniting Sainz and Verstappen – Toro Rosso team-mates in their F1 rookie season – would appeal to Red Bull.

Sainz ultimately agreed a multi-year deal with Williams.

“Red Bull wouldn’t bring in a Carlos Sainz type because the sparks are going to fly and I’m not sure they’ll want that,” claimed Montoya.

F1 2025: How the grid is looking

👉 F1 2025 driver line-up: Who is already confirmed for the 2025 grid?

👉 F1 driver contracts: What is the contract status of every driver on the 2024 grid?

Red Bull held a meeting last Monday following the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, where senior advisor Helmut Marko had claimed “the line-ups of both teams [Red Bull and Racing Bulls] will be decided.”

“When it will be announced? I don’t think it will be Monday,” Marko continued to Motorsport.com. “Of course we will wait for the result [of the test] before we make an announcement of the decision.”

Yuki Tsunoda got his first taste of Red Bull machinery in the Abu Dhabi post-season test, after four seasons with the second Red Bull team, though Liam Lawson is seen as the driver most likely to step up from Racing Bulls to Red Bull if Perez is axed.

Read next: FIA tease F1 driver contract clauses after Max Verstappen punishment