209-race F1 superstar could ‘do a Hamilton’ and sign for his new team two years in advance

The 2025 Formula 1 driver market should, in theory, be fairly settled. More than half the grid were out of contract last year, and typically a year of tumult is followed by a period of calm.

Many of those who changed teams in last year’s reshuffle, like Lewis Hamilton, have signed multi-year contracts. And the same is true for those who renewed their commitments.

That effectively takes them off the market for 2026. And with seismic regulation changes on the horizon, it’s probably wise to see how the pecking order changes before considering next steps.

The biggest name who could be on the move is George Russell. The British driver is approaching the end of his Mercedes deal, so speculation will start to ramp up once the season begins, though it’s worth noting Kimi Antonelli has only been signed for an initial 12 months too.

Elsewhere, Yuki Tsunoda’s time in the Red Bull family may come to an end after he lost out on a promotion last year. Liam Lawson needs to prove himself alongside Max Verstappen to earn another deal, and new Racing Bulls signing Isack Hadjar is in a similar boat.

Even if Jack Doohan makes it beyond his six-race contract, he’ll remain under pressure from reserve driver Franco Colapinto. Thus, there are already six confirmed players in the market, and as last year demonstrated, there’s the potential for an explosive surprise too.

Max Verstappen might sign for Mercedes or Aston Martin ahead of time

Hamilton’s Mercedes exit caught the world of F1 completely off guard last year. He’d only signed a new contract six months earlier, covering both the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

The assumption was that it would be at least a year before the rumours started to ramp up. But Hamilton had an option to escape his contract halfway through, and he exercised it to join Ferrari.

This completely transformed 2024’s silly season. It put Carlos Sainz on the market, with virtually every midfield team waiting on his decision before they confirmed their plans.

The next driver to ‘do a Hamilton’ could be Verstappen, according to ESPN. He could pursue a ‘change of scenery’ if Red Bull can’t improve their 2024 form, or if ‘doubts about the Ford partnership [in 2026] grow’.

In those circumstances, chief suitors Mercedes and Aston Martin would ‘smell blood in the water’. If the timelines don’t align initially, Verstappen might be willing to ‘sign for a season or two’ ahead.

F1 rookie explains why Max Verstappen is more complete than Lewis Hamilton

Losing Verstappen would be a truly monumental blow for Red Bull. Mercedes could accept Hamilton’s departure because he was approaching his 40th birthday and arguably beyond the peak of his powers, but the reigning world champion is only 27.

He’s building his legacy as an all-time great, chasing down Michael Schumacher’s record of five straight titles. While there’s uncertainty around Red Bull after the exits of Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley, and their 2024 regression, paddock insiders suggest Verstappen could win the championship with an even semi-competitive package.

That is a precious asset for any frontrunning team. Indeed, Isack Hadjar thinks Verstappen is the most complete driver in F1, even above Hamilton, because of his mental strength.

While his contract runs until 2028, various reports have revealed that Verstappen can activate exit clauses if he wants to leave earlier.