McLaren: Imola is a missed chance that goes beyond the strategy topic

The Imola Grand Prix leaves us with a key question that sums up a Formula 1 weekend that, after Friday’s free practice sessions, had seemed already written. McLaren’s MCL39 looked like the car to beat — setting the standard both in qualifying trim and race pace — while the RB21 once again struggled with the set-up issues that typically plague its opening day on track. Yet, the expected narrative was wrong.

A stellar Max Verstappen once again changed the course of the race, snatching victory from McLaren in what can only be described as a missed opportunity for the Woking team.

It’s no coincidence that Verstappen later referred to the race as a “perfect execution”, because something extraordinary was required to beat McLaren. From the start to the race strategy, including exploiting potential missteps from McLaren’s pitwall, the Dutchman and his team delivered precisely that.

The turning point came right at the start: Verstappen’s audacious overtake around the outside of the Tamburello chicane reshaped the race entirely. Not only did it keep him out of Oscar Piastri’s turbulent air, but it also gave him control of the pace. As seen in other races — Miami being a notable example — Red Bull can keep up with rivals on fresh tires but, over longer stints, the car’s vulnerabilities start to show. However, Imola told a more interesting story than it might first appear.

A significant portion of the gap Verstappen built over Piastri in the first stint came within the opening two laps, where he consistently pushed to extend his lead. But, looking more broadly, between laps three and nine the narrative changes. Lap times stabilized for both drivers, and Verstappen gained just two additional tenths, bringing his total advantage to just under two seconds.

This was when the race began to shift. From lap 10 onward, Piastri’s performance dropped off, his lap times increased by several tenths, while Verstappen’s remained consistent. The advantage in some corners that had earned McLaren pole on Saturday – and helped in keeping pace in the first laps – faded from that point forward. This growing gap forced McLaren to consider a change in strategy. “I think Oscar obviously pushed quite hard at the start, and you could see he was beginning to get a bit of graining on the front-right tire,” Red Bull boss Christian Horner noted after the race.

Weather conditions also played a role: at the race start, track temperatures peaked at 45°C, the highest of the weekend. When tires are pushed too aggressively early on when they are not ready, especially through high-energy corners like Piratella, where indeed McLaren was pushing to keep the pace, it can lead to a thermal imbalance, triggering graining. The softer the tyres, the more susceptible they are to this phenomenon.

Piastri’s sudden drop in pace was not typical tire degradation due to wear, but rather a thermal issue. We have a hint also from Mercedes: over the radio, George Russell was told that the tire removed during his first stop still had 70% of its tread left. This underscores how critical tire temperature management was, particularly on such a hot track. Front-end graining has long plagued McLaren more than other teams, and it’s this issue that ultimately pushed the team to put Piastri on a two-stop strategy.

Although Andrea Stella later stated that McLaren had considered a different strategy to surprise Red Bull, the call was mainly reactive to Piastri’s declining pace during that stint. Indeed, over the radio, the team asked the Australian whether he could keep pushing or if a pitstop was needed. McLaren acted on instinct, not to cover drivers like Charles Leclerc, who was not a threat, but because it simply lacked pace in that phase. The team opted to pit before the tires could stabilize and recover pace, hoping to shift the race towards the two stops.

However, switching to a two-stop effectively ended Piastri’s chances of winning. Imola features one of the longest pitlanes on the calendar, with each stop costing around 28s. Add the risk of traffic and just one DRS zone, and overtaking becomes a major challenge, making a two-stop strategy unrewarding for frontrunners.

Before the VSC caused by Esteban Ocon’s retirement, Piastri had to overtake seven cars, those who stayed out with a one-stop strategy, which added nearly another second to his gap behind Verstappen. Even without the VSC, his hopes were already compromised, since Verstappen could have pitted and still rejoined in the lead, having only stopped once.

“In the first stint, even if the tires felt like they were degrading quickly, they still had more to give – that’s why Lando, Max, and other drivers stuck with a one-stop strategy,” Stella explained. Once the tyres had settled, as seen with Norris in the first stint, the pace began to pick up again.

While the first-lap overtake undoubtedly shaped the race, it wasn’t the sole reason for Verstappen’s win — especially considering McLaren couldn’t play a two-versus-one strategy against Verstappen, with Norris further back. McLaren could have hoped to manage tire wear better, but even that was a long shot given the RB21’s improved pace and the race neutralizations that allowed Verstappen to stop for fresh tires.

This is also why Red Bull remains cautious, avoiding overconfidence despite promising signs from its Imola updates, which helped increase the set-up window. The RB21 has shown flashes of pace in specific races before, only to struggle in the following contests, showing that it’s really track-dependant, while generally McLaren has shown a greater spike in performance and more versatility.

Stella, meanwhile, remains optimistic heading into circuits with slower corners, where the MCL39 continues to be the reference point and generally has a bigger advantage: “If you look at the aero maps of Miami and here, they’re very different. We were competitive in Bahrain, China, Miami. But in fast corners, we don’t have a particular advantage. And Red Bull has improved their car.”