Is Lewis Hamilton really in free fall?

“Lewis is in free fall, isn’t he?” That was a message I’d received this week from a friend, who is a staunch Hamilton supporter.

The timing was interesting, as moments before, an email had dropped containing the comments from former F1 driver-turned-pundit Johnny Herbert, who is rapidly becoming Mr Rent-A-Quote on all manner of subjects, with his remarks freely available to use as a source for stories (in exchange for plugging betting websites).

In essence, Herbert’s point was that Lewis Hamilton had lost his way with Ferrari and that the Italian team would be better to throw all its weight behind Charles Leclerc, who at 13 years younger, should be considered the team’s future.

It is a fair assessment, and came after Hamilton had finished sixth, courtesy of Max Verstappen’s penalty in the Spanish GP; otherwise, it would have been seventh, while Leclerc had taken another podium finish.

After the race in Barcelona, Hamilton had labelled it: “the worst he had ever experienced”. That is some unwelcome accolade, given it was his 365th F1 race. With each race, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the growing frustration he is experiencing as he adjusts to the new surroundings following his switch from Mercedes in the winter.

Hamilton’s commitment cannot be questioned. He is spending time at Ferrari’s Maranello factory and staying well into the night during F1 GP weekends, digging into the data in the hope of finding elements that, as yet, have been missing.

Those missing elements remain unknown to the sender of the text message, or indeed perhaps Herbert too, but those working close to him can see his determined work in a relentless quest for an uptick in performance and results.

However, those halcyon days and his well-choreographed unveiling in the winter begin now seem a distant memory, and there is a foreboding sense that the dreams of winning an eighth F1 World Championship are nothing more than that.

The win in the sprint race in China, as was the happiness he expressed in the post-race media sessions at Imola, have both proved to be false dawns, and even, as is the case with the person who sent the message, the most passionate Hamilton fan must now be fearing the worst.

Perhaps we should not be surprised. Like Hamilton, fellow F1 world champions Alain Prost, Fernando Alonso, and Sebastian Vettel all arrived at F1’s most famous team with the hope that it would herald another title — only for that not to prove the case.

So why is it not working for Hamilton?

The situation is complicated, and there is not one single factor that is obvious. At the start of the season, Ferrari’s problems stemmed from set-up, with ride height being a factor. Indeed, Hamilton was disqualified from the Chinese GP due to a worn plank as his car was set up too low to the ground.

Then there is Hamilton’s fondness for an F1 car that is set up to be stiff – again compromised by the softer rear suspension set up, which has prevented him from getting it dialled in. Furthermore, the upgrades were slow to arrive in the early part of the season as Mercedes and Red Bull both benefitted from new parts.

Poor strategy has been a frequent problem for Ferrari, and this has not been helped by Hamilton being required to forge a new relationship with his race engineer – and dealing with the language barrier.

The significance of the cultural shift that comes with moving from a UK team to one based in Italy cannot also be underestimated. It was always going to take time for Hamilton to adjust, but to take Herbert’s point, at 40, time in F1 is not something Hamilton has an abundance of.

It looks bleak, and perhaps to the outsider, looks like Hamilton is in free fall. His demeanour and comments in Barcelona are backed up by miserable race results, which means he’s placed sixth in the drivers’ championship — some 23 points behind his team-mate. Plus, history tells us that Ferrari does not usually offer a happy ending to the careers of F1 world champions.

However, Hamilton’s switch to Ferrari was never about this season, but for preparation for the new regulations that come in 2026, in the hope of one roll of the dice for the record-breaking eighth world title his glittering career deserves.

Even the most fervent of Hamilton fans are having to dig deep, and some, like Herbert, are starting to question if it will happen.

Is this really the beginning of the end, which will see him turfed out of the back door of a sport he has dominated? I absolutely hope not, but the reality is, we don’t know.