The Formula 1 season finally kicks off at Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix and F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers has predicted who they think will be the polesitter and winner of the race.
F1 is entering its 75th anniversary year, and it looks set to be competitive as the top four teams converge and the remaining teams edge closer to breaking into the points and podium positions.
McLaren enters the season as the clear favourite to take the title after Lando Norris showed impressive pace at the end of pre-season testing, while everyone is keen to see how Lewis Hamilton will get on in his first season with Ferrari.
Charles Leclerc has been impressed with how quickly Hamilton has got up to speed at Ferrari, with the Briton looking to extend is pole record at Albert Park.
Max Verstappen heads into the race hoping he can kickstart his title defence well, although Red Bull are being cautious about their chances after what they seen in testing. Mercedes is also tempering expectations, although rain on Sunday could help their cause.
The long off-season is finally over and fans can finally watch the opening round at the Australian Grand Prix on March 16. Ahead of the five lights being extinguished, F1 Oversteer’s expert writers predict who they think will win, the polesitter, biggest surprise and biggest disappointment.
How to watch the Australian Grand Prix?
Sky Sports F1 will be providing live TV coverage in the UK, while those outside of the country can watch via F1 TV.
| Day | Session | Channel (GMT) |
| Friday | FP1 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (1 am) |
| Friday | FP2 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (4:45 am) |
| Saturday | FP3 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (1:10 am) |
| Saturday | Qualifying | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (4:15 am) |
| Sunday | Grand Prix | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (2:30 am) |
F1 experts predict who will get pole position in Australian Grand Prix as Lewis Hamilton holds record
David Comerford: “Max Verstappen said McLaren are the only contenders right now, the most telling statement to arise from winter testing. It should be an intra-team battle for pole, and until Piastri shows he’s improved over one lap, Norris has to be the pick.”
Shay Rogers: “I know what you’re thinking – how could anyone bet against Lando Norris? I’m not the biggest believer in Oscar Piastri myself, but the Aussie is competing at his home track and will be cheered on by a bumper sellout crowd. His strength is one lap pace and if there’s anywhere he will be most determined to be on top, it’ll be his home season-opener.”
Rory Mitchell: “Lando Norris looks like the driver to beat at the start of the 2025 season, which is effectively a continuation of his form from last season. The McLaren driver was quickest throughout a lap of the big four teams and looked the most comfortable in his MCL39.”
Tyler Rowlinson: “McLaren are the clear favourites in 2025 after pre-season testing and they will be keen to get their title defence off to a perfect start. It will be an orange car at the front of the field – and one is backing the home hero.”
“Piastri will be more motivated than ever with the scores set back to zero after he was forced to sit back in 2024 as Norris fought for the title. The Aussie is looking to stamp his authority in 2025 – and what better place to do it than on home soil.”
Ben Evans: “I think it’s going to come down to a battle between the two McLaren drivers and if that’s the case then Lando Norris should just have the edge of Oscar Piastri.
Piastri has been working on his qualifying pace over the winter and could spring a surprise, but I’m still back his more experienced teammate on this occasion.”
Who will win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri: “Norris was 12 seconds ahead of his rivals after the race simulations in testing. That makes him an almost automatic pick. On the inferior strategy from second place, Piastri is more likely to come under pressure, and Charles Leclerc will be the beneficiary – though Max Verstappen and George Russell could easily finish on the podium too as their new teammates adapt.”
Shay Rogers – Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Charles Leclerc: “The McLaren drivers will need to keep it clean for this to happen, but on a normal weekend I expect this to be the top three for the time being. Red Bull aren’t close enough for Max Verstappen to be a solid prediction at this early stage and Lewis Hamilton needs some time to settle at Ferrari. I do think that Mercedes will be strong, but they need to settle with Kimi Antonelli first.”
Rory Mitchell – Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri: “McLaren is expected to come out of Melbourne with a one-two victory, but I just think Max Verstappen and the well-oiled strategy machine at Red Bull will pull something out of the bag.
“Rain is forecasted to impact the race on Sunday, which could make things tricky and throw up a strategy conundrum, but I think McLaren has enough pace in the bag to deal with any potential problems along the way.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, George Russell: “McLaren will lock out the front row and take a one-two to begin 2025. No Aussie has ever won their home race – but that will change this year as – just as Karun Chandhok predicted – Piastri comes home to win in Melbourne.
“Norris will provide a close battle – a taste of what is to come from the McLaren drivers this year in what will be a headache for Zak Brown and Andrea Stella throughout 2025. It will be a chaotic battle behind the MCL39’s for the final podium spot and one has more encouragement from George Russell and Mercedes to think they will be McLaren’s closest challenger.”
Ben Evans – Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri: “Although McLaren appear to have the fastest car after pre-season testing, there’s one variable they can’t control in Melbourne: the weather.
“The forecast is for heavy rain and if we’ve learned anything from recent seasons, it’s that Max Verstappen has an advantage over the rest of the grid in tricky conditions.”
Who will be the biggest surprise on the F1 grid in the Australian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Oliver Bearman: “Many are forgetting about Haas because of their deliberately low-key test. But provided it’s dry, Bearman should be able to recapture the scintillating speed he showed in Azerbaijan last year, getting close to or even beating Esteban Ocon.”
Shay Rogers – Jack Doohan: “Another driver at his home race, Jack Doohan inherits a car which is miles ahead of where it was this time last year. Teammate Pierre Gasly will be in contention for points, and I expect the Aussie to be as well. He looked far stronger at pre-season testing having managed to get a winter of preparation under his belt. He might just sneak into the points.”
Rory Mitchell – Oliver Bearman: “The three races Oliver Bearman did between Ferrari and Haas last season were impressive, and I expect him to repeat the feat at Melbourne.
“Although he’s only raced the track once in F2, Bearman is a methodical driver who can convert what he sees on the simulator into results. I expect a points finish for the Briton, potentially even finishing ahead of experienced teammate Esteban Ocon.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Jack Doohan: “He has the world against him heading into the Australian Grand Prix – and the Alpine driver will use that to his advantage to prove every one of his doubters wrong. The A525 looks in a better position than its predecessors at this stage in the season and the Aussie will look to capitalise on home soil. While one does not expect a Q3 appearance, the crazy nature of the Grand Prix and its almost guaranteed crashes may see the 22-year-old grab points – a dent in Flavio Briatore’s plans to replace him with Franco Colapinto.”
Ben Evans – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “Mercedes appear to be on a par with Ferrari and Red Bull when it comes to overall pace, setting up a fascinating battle behind McLaren in dry conditions. Antonelli showed during testing that he’s already up to speed alongside George Russell and I wouldn’t be surprised if he outqualifies or even beats his more experienced teammate.”
Who will be the biggest disappointment in the Australian Grand Prix?
David Comerford – Liam Lawson: “Lawson has repeatedly tried to play down expectations for the start of the season because he’s unfamiliar with many of the circuits. That could lead to a Q2 exit, a disappointment for the Kiwi fans who have made the trip to Melbourne.”
Shay Rogers – Aston Martin: “There may genuinely be a scenario where both Aston Martin cars are knocked out in Q1 with the two Saubers if they don’t manage to find some more performance from their setups before Saturday. They’ve been on the wrong path for nearly two years now and although Adrian Newey is now in town, the effects of his work won’t be felt for at least six months. It could be a bleak time down at Silverstone.”
Rory Mitchell – Lewis Hamilton: “It will be disappointing for Lewis Hamilton to finish anywhere other than a podium, and I just don’t think Ferrari have it in them this early in the season.
“They need time to address some of their inherent problems before being thought of as a contender, which will happen later in the season. For that reason, all of the hype surrounding Hamilton will probably fall flat at the first race.”
Tyler Rowlinson – Liam Lawson: “Red Bull had the most question marks over them after pre-season testing. While Max Verstappen will do the best he can with the RB21, one is concerned about the other side of the garage.
“Lawson has never driven the Albert Park circuit before and might be learning more about the track and his car before he gets on the pace over the weekend. A Q2 exit is entirely possible and one is not expecting a miracle from the Kiwi driver’s debut outing for Red Bull.”
Ben Evans – Sauber: “Sauber’s car looked off the pace during testing and it appears that they’ve been left behind by the rest of the grid already.
“Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto are both extremely talented but may have their work cut out already this season with Audi’s takeover looking more and more important to justify the team’s existence in Formula 1.”
