Red Bull’s decision to promote Liam Lawson for 2025 is clearly a gamble. While he has tested for the team behind the scenes, his body of work in F1 only consists of 11 races.
Helmut Marko and Christian Horner are notorious for showing little patience when a driver struggles, even if they’re new to the team. Most notably, they dumped Pierre Gasly halfway through the 2019 season.
Gasly had only just graduated from Toro Rosso but he soon found himself back at Faenza as Alex Albon got a chance instead. Four years later, Nyck de Vries was axed before the summer break, paving the way for Daniel Ricciardo to make a comeback.
Ricciardo didn’t complete a full season, lasting 18 races in 2024 before Lawson’s ascension. That may have been contractually-motivated, rather than entirely performance-based.
Still, Red Bull’s track record suggests Lawson could come under immediate pressure if he doesn’t deliver. If he’s just as far off Verstappen as predecessor Sergio Perez, Horner will have a dilemma.
In theory at least, that could present an opportunity for Yuki Tsunoda. Having been snubbed following Perez’s exit, the Japanese driver is now set for a fifth straight season at de facto junior team Racing Bulls.
Christian Horner says Red Bull will keep a ‘close eye’ on Yuki Tsunoda this year
Speaking to journalists, including F1 Oversteer’s Rory Mitchell, at the Autosport awards, Horner was asked whether Tsunoda represents a viable backup for 2025. Predictably perhaps, he tiptoed around the question.
He reiterated that Tsunoda is among the ‘pool’ of available options, and vowed to watch his progress closely, together with rookie teammate Isack Hadjar. But Lawson is his ‘priority’ for now.
It seems Horner is trying to avoid putting any further pressure on his 22-year-old signing. Lawson already understands the responsibility he faces.
| Category | Yuki Tsunoda | Liam Lawson |
| 2024 points | 8 | 4 |
| Grand Prix results | 4 | 2 |
| Grand Prix qualifying | 6 | 0 |
| Grand Prix wins | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Prix poles | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Prix podiums | 0 | 0 |
| Best finish | 7th | 9th |
| Retirements | 1 | 0 |
| Retirements (classified finish) | 0 | 1 |
| Fastest laps | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Prix points finishes | 2 | 2 |
| Sprint results | 0 | 3 |
| Sprint Qualifying | 0 | 3 |
| Sprint wins | 0 | 0 |
| Sprint poles | 0 | 0 |
| Sprint podiums | 0 | 0 |
To that end, Red Bull could give him at least a full year to prove himself. If they see enough promise, he may then earn a contract extension.
“Yuki is in the pool,” Horner said. “Our priority is on our race drivers. But Yuki is a very talented driver and we’ll be keeping a close eye on him and Isack Hadjar as well.”
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Red Bull would have assessed a range of factors as they chose between the two Racing Bulls drivers. As the table above shows, Tsunoda had the edge when it came to results.
But that was perhaps to be expected given that he already had 18 races of experience in the VCARB01 before Lawson arrived. Horner also wanted to ensure his new driver could mentally cope with partnering Verstappen, who’s become a career-killer.
Alan Permane has told Tsunoda to listen to Oscar Piastri’s radio and take inspiration from his calm approach. His occasionally exasperated messages have counted against him.
Far from a promotion to Red Bull, F1 commentator Harry Benjamin fears Tsunoda could drop off the grid at the end of 2025. He’s in the final year of his deal, and significantly, his backers Honda are splitting with the Milton Keynes outfit at the end of the season.
