After what was arguably one of Max Verstappen’s finest drives in his career last weekend in Japan, the situation in Bahrain looked dramatically different.

In qualifying, Max only managed the seventh fastest time, while his team-mate Yuki Tsunoda will start the race from tenth on the grid. The data helps us uncover the key reasons behind the reigning champion’s drop in performance — and what we can expect from Red Bull in tomorrow’s race.

RB21 problems are just growing

From the start of the season, it’s been obvious that the Red Bull car is nowhere near the dominant form seen two years ago with the RB19. The race in Japan highlighted just how difficult the RB21 is to drive, especially once we saw Tsunoda take the wheel for the first time.

The car performs well only within a very narrow operating window — step outside of it, and you’re in trouble. That makes it incredibly hard for drivers to build trust in the car, particularly if they don’t have prior experience with it.

The core issues? A lack of rear-end grip and persistent understeer in the corners — something that usually suits Max’s style, but even he has struggled to predict the car’s behaviour in recent races.

The extent of the problem was visible already in Q1, where both drivers found it difficult to even set a representative time. Verstappen wasn’t happy on the radio either, feeling something wasn’t right with the car after a major front lock-up into Turn 1.

When comparing sector times between Verstappen and Piastri, we see that Max put in a strong first sector — mostly due to his advantage in top speed. However, it all fell apart in the second and third sectors, where Red Bull was seriously lacking.

Piastri was able to apply throttle more through Turns 5, 6, and 7 — clearly more confident in the stability of his rear end compared to the RB21. You can also spot that the Australian braked significantly later into Turns 8 and 10, two of the most challenging corners on the circuit. The same story repeated in the final corner, once again confirming the level of confidence McLaren drivers have over their Red Bull counterparts.

In the end, the gap between Verstappen and the fastest driver in qualifying was nearly 0.6 seconds — his largest deficit of the 2025 season so far.

Tsunoda shows progress — or does he?

On the other side of the garage, you could argue that Yuki Tsunoda made progress simply by helping both Red Bull cars reach Q3 for the first time this season. After replacing Liam Lawson last weekend, his results haven’t shown significant improvement — but at least this was a step in the right direction.

However, Yuki was the only driver in Q3 who failed to improve on his Q2 lap time — something you definitely don’t want to see, especially given the high track evolution in Bahrain.

Another worrying stat: he doesn’t feature in the top 10 drivers in the ideal lap time comparison from qualifying. In fact, both Alpine drivers and Carlos Sainz in the Williams managed to extract more from their machinery than Yuki did.

The areas where the Japanese driver struggled the most were the complex of corners between Turns 5 and 7, where Verstappen managed to carry more speed. Max also looked far more confident through Turns 10 and 13, increasing the time gap between the two Red Bulls even further.

The truth is, the RB21 is simply too complex. It demands such a high level of precision that only Max, for now, can consistently deliver. But Max has spent his entire career at Red Bull, developing their cars from the very start of the ground-effect era. Expecting another driver to reach that same level after just one or two races is unrealistic.

More from the Bahrain Grand Prix

👉 Data unearths critical Lando Norris error after shock Bahrain GP setback

👉 F1 starting grid: What is the grid order for the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?

What can Red Bull do on Sunday?

One thing is certain — both drivers are in for a tough race, and much will depend on strategy. Let’s remember that in Bahrain last year, Red Bull was one of the few teams to run a two-soft, one-hard tyre strategy, while most opted for two hard stints.

Even though this season is a very different story for Red Bull, Max Verstappen’s talent should never be underestimated. As for Yuki, this race could be a chance to build much-needed confidence and trust — something that will be essential for the rest of his season.

Read next: Have Red Bull found the ‘big one’? – Crushing verdict for Tsunoda and Lawson