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David Coulthard’s ‘raw speed’ rookie theory will prove if Kimi Antonelli is a future F1 champion in 2025

Depending on your definition of a rookie, 30% of the 2025 Formula 1 grid will be starting their first full-time seasons in the series this year.

The spectrum of rookies ranges from Liam Lawson – who has just signed for Red Bull after 11 races – and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who is one of three drivers making their debut at the Australian Grand Prix.

Mercedes have taken a gamble on promoting Antonelli after just one season in Formula 2 and skipping Formula 3 entirely.

Team principal Toto Wolff has full confidence in the teenager’s ability, but preparations are already underway to get him up to speed as quickly as possible.

Antonelli did an extensive amount of testing in 2024 in a program that was quickly accelerated once Mercedes discovered that Lewis Hamilton was leaving in 2025.

Mercedes planned a two-day test in Jerez for Antonelli that started on Wednesday to help him learn more about the team’s procedures during a race weekend.

Kimi Antonelli of the Mercedes AMG F1 Team W15 is in a portrait during the Formula 1 testing at Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirat...
Photo by Gongora/NurPhoto via Getty Images

His most recent test was done in a 2020 F1 car, meaning he won’t learn too much about the intricacies of the current generation of cars but it’ll no doubt be useful to him regardless.

There’s a lot of hype surrounding Antonelli and several of his fellow rookies this year.

Speaking on the Formula For Success Podcast, David Coulthard explained his theory about how he’ll be able to tell whether any of them are future world champions this season.

David Coulthard explains F1 world champion theory ahead of Kimi Antonelli’s debut

Talking about the upcoming season, Coulthard said: “So I have this very simple theory that you either have the speed or you don’t.

“So if you look at Max, if you look at Lewis, if you look at Ayrton, pick any of the absolute exceptional drivers that have entered the sport, they’ve entered with a flurry of absolute pace.

“They haven’t come in a second away from their teammates and worked their way forward. They’ve had that raw speed, and that’s the thing for me that separates the exceptionals from the merely good Formula One drivers.

READ MORE: Know all about 2025 Mercedes F1 driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli including stats

“So, we’ll find out quite quickly who has that absolute potential for delivering a lap time. Of course, that doesn’t always mean that they then become the complete package, because there’s one thing doing a single lap, and there’s another thing doing that over an entire Grand Prix distance.

“But we can only find that out by putting them in the car. So I think it’s an exciting opportunity for a number of these young guys. They have to deliver.”

Mercedes keen to give Kimi Antonelli time but will want to see glimpses of future stardom

Antonelli is in an intriguing position heading into 2025, with the 18-year-old potentially at the wheel of a race-winning car this season.

Rookies tend to have more time to acclimate to Formula 1 in slower cars with lower expectations, but a driver doesn’t reach the pinnacle of motorsport as a teenager unless they’re used to handling pressure and winning races.

Wolff has tempered expectations on Antonelli’s debut already and isn’t expecting him to be challenging for pole position at Albert Park.

READ MORE: All you need to know about Mercedes F1 Team from team principal to lineage

But as Coulthard has explained, the likes of Hamilton and Verstappen proved from the moment they entered Formula 1 that they were special talents.

It means that although Antonelli might not be a title contender in 2025, he has to be putting Russell under pressure as soon as he can.

Mercedes are expected to have the best engine for the 2026 season when the regulations change and Wolff will want two drivers capable of challenging for the title by the time next season rolls around.

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