Lewis Hamilton will hope to immediately compete for the world championship when he joins Ferrari next year. He’ll be one of six drivers looking to dethrone Max Verstappen.
In theory, up to eight could be in contention as the field reaches maximum convergence in the final year of the ground-effect ruleset. But Verstappen’s Red Bull teammate knows he will play second fiddle.
McLaren are favourites to win the constructors’ championship, having arrived at the Qatar Grand Prix with a 24-point lead over Ferrari. That could make current runner-up Lando Norris and fourth-place Oscar Piastri the favourites for next year, though few would bet against Verstappen – even in inferior machinery.
Still, Ferrari are close enough that Charles Leclerc and Hamilton can legitimately target the championship. It will only take small improvements over the winter for them to be in contention.
Mercedes are the wildcard in this conversation. They’ve been exceptional in very specific conditions this year, but more often anonymous.
George Russell has driven better than ever in 2024 but he’ll be alongside a rookie in Kimi Antonelli. Hamilton surely wouldn’t have left the Silver Arrows if he thought he could win the title at Brackley in 2025.
Helmut Marko expects Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton battle to suit Max Verstappen
Speaking to De Telegraaf, Helmut Marko outlined a key advantage for Verstappen in his upcoming title defence. He’s looking to become only the second driver in F1 history to win five consecutive titles after Michael Schumacher (2000-04).
Red Bull started the year with a dominant car but their performance has tailed off since. Since the start of the Austria weekend, they’ve scored 225 points, compared to 314 for Ferrari and 371 for McLaren.
Of course, much of that is down to the struggles of Sergio Perez. But Verstappen was only able to build a commanding cushion this year because Red Bull had an advantage in the early rounds.
Whether Perez keeps his drive or Red Bull replace him, Verstappen will remain the dominant points scorer at Milton Keynes. Meanwhile, the drivers at McLaren and Ferrari will be so closely matched that they’re bound to hamper one another.
“Next year it will all be even closer together, I expect,” Marko said. “That’s what happens when the regulations are exhausted. But I do think that at Ferrari Hamilton and Leclerc will take points from each other, and at McLaren Norris and Piastri too. At Mercedes we have to wait and see how stable they are.”
Why Lewis Hamilton was emotional at Qatar Grand Prix
Marko believes Hamilton is an upgrade on Carlos Sainz even though he’s struggled this year. It looks increasingly likely that he’ll finish outside the top six in the championship for the first time.
He’s been particularly poor over one lap, with Russell 17-5 up on Saturdays. Hamilton qualified five spots below his teammate for the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint.
Russell thinks Hamilton needs a fresh start and the 39-year-old may share that view. But that doesn’t mean it will be easy to say goodbye.
Indeed, Ted Kravitz says Hamilton became teary in his Qatar GP interviews on Thursday. He was recounting a conversation with engineer Peter Bonnington where it dawned him on that he only had around a week left as a Mercedes driver.
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