Formula 1 returns to the Suzuka Circuit for the third round of the 2025 World Championship, so F1 Oversteer’s writers have predicted who they think will be the polesitter, winner, and on the podium of the race.
Suzuka is often positioned at the end of the season but has moved to an earlier slot, as part of F1’s efforts to group races by region.
In the past, Suzuka has been the scene of various title deciders including Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost’s controversial crashes and Damon Hill securing his first and only championship in 1996.
McLaren is the most successful team at the circuit, which bodes well for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri as they look to add to a third victory to the teams unbeaten tally so far.
Yuki Tsunoda makes his debut for Red Bull on home turf, meaning he could become the first Japanese driver since Kamui Kobayashi to finish on the podium at Suzuka. All eyes will be on Tsunoda after Red Bull unceremoniously dropped Liam Lawson after two races, making it the shortest career for a driver in the Milton Keynes outfit.
Max Verstappen also stands a chance of retaking the lead in the Drivers Championship if he wins and Norris finishes outside of the top three. Lewis Hamilton is still searching for his first Grand Prix victory with Ferrari, as he looks to build on his previous learnings from the first two races.
With all this in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert writers have taken a look at who they think will come out on top in the land of the rising sun.
How to watch the Japanese Grand Prix on TV?
Sky Sports F1 will be providing live TV coverage in the UK, while those outside of the country can watch via F1 TV.
| Day | Session | Channel (GMT) |
| Friday | FP1 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (3:00 am) |
| Friday | FP2 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (6:45 am) |
| Saturday | FP3 | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (3:15 am) |
| Saturday | Qualifying | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (6:00 am) |
| Sunday | Grand Prix | Sky Sports F1 and Main Event (4:30 am) |
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Ben Evans: Oscar Piastri – Coming off the back of arguably his best weekend in Formula 1, Piastri demonstrated that he has full confidence in McLaren’s car already.
Suzuka demands that drivers are fully committed through the sweeping, high speed turns, otherwise they’ll quickly be found out.
McLaren expect to have an advantage over the first of the field in Japan, and given Norris doesn’t feel completely comfortable with this year’s car, it’s set up for Piastri to secure back-to-back pole positions.
Who will win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?
Rory Mitchell: Oscar Piastri – F1 heads to another track that has extreme tyre wear and high track evolution. Pirelli actually rate Suzuka on par with Barcelona and Silverstone, two circuits often tested at by the tyre maker.
Lando Norris’ main weakness over Piastri has been his ability to manage the tyres when high attrition plays a role, and I’d expect the same scenario to play out at this highly technical circuit.
What will be the podium in the Japanese Grand Prix?
Tyler Rowlinson: Oscar Piastri, Max Verstappen, Lando Norris – Piastri comes into Suzuka off the back of a commanding win in Shanghai, proving to everyone he has the capabilities to control races and fight for titles. Given McLaren’s glaringly obvious advantage over the rest of the field and the Aussie’s momentum, he should be in the prime position to grab his first back-to-back F1 wins.
While George Russell has been McLaren’s closest challenger with two third-place finishes, it will be Max Verstappen to offer the biggest threat in Japan. The Dutchman has won the last three events and has never been beaten by his teammate in the Grand Prix he has finished here.
The RB21 does not have the performance to win a race and Verstappen is clearly frustrated with his car. But he has maximised the absolute most of the car so far and will split the McLarens this weekend on a track that is one of his best.
- READ MORE: Which F1 drivers do well at the Japanese Grand Prix with Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton successful at Suzuka
Who will be the biggest surprise on the F1 grid in the Japanese Grand Prix?
David Comerford: Liam Lawson – There was a great deal of talk about Lawson’s unfamiliarity with Australia and China, but Suzuka is a circuit he knows well.
More than that, Max Verstappen says Racing Bulls have a better car than Red Bull, and he may find the more compliant handling refreshing. The key question is whether he can overcome the psychological blow, but Pierre Gasly did that pretty well back in 2019.
Who will be the biggest disappointment in the Japanese Grand Prix?
Shay Rogers: Ferrari – It would be easy to pick someone from the Red Bull stable here, but there has been plenty of talk about them in the last few weeks and everyone knows where the stand. How about down at Ferrari, where the first two races have brought significant disappointment, first with poor performance and secondly with disqualifications.
They weren’t overly strong at Suzuka last year, and now they’re going to bring some adjustments in a bid to find more speed this weekend. They’re sure that their concept is a good one, but if their suspension tweaks do not work, they could be in denial.
If both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc haven’t been able to produce much of note on three very different tracks, then alarm bells should be sounded in Maranello. 2025 is already starting to become a bit of a nightmare for the red outfit and I see this as just the start of their woes.
