Jenson Button ‘can’t see’ £8m-a-year driver being on 2025 F1 grid despite his contract

The grid for the 2025 Formula 1 season is almost full, but Jenson Button expects one driver with a valid contract to get the chop after enduring a ‘negative run’ of results.

Only Visa Cash App RB have a seat left to fill in next term’s grid after Sauber signed Gabriel Bortoleto to partner Nico Hulkenberg. The Brazilian is one of multiple young drivers who will graduate to Formula 1 in 2025 alongside Jack Doohan at Alpine and Oliver Bearman at Haas.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli will also replace seven-time F1 champion Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes with the Briton joining Ferrari. But while the aforementioned drivers are eagerly anticipating their new adventures, Button cannot see one driver returning without a late change in form.

Jenson Button ‘can’t see’ Red Bull keeping Sergio Perez in 2025

Button believes Sergio Perez must end the 2024 season on a high and get the better of Max Verstappen at the Qatar Grand Prix and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix if he wants to return with Red Bull next year. If he cannot, then the 2009 F1 champion thinks the end is nigh for Perez.

The 34-year-old has a deal for 2025 after Red Bull extended Perez’s £8m-a-year contract in June. His deal also boasts an option for the 2026 season, but discussions will follow the Abu Dhabi GP next week as Helmut Marko has confirmed that Red Bull will discuss firing Perez.

Red Bull look likely to lose the constructors’ title this season thanks to Perez as the Mexican has only scored 152 points compared to drivers’ champion teammate Verstappen’s 403. The Guadalajara native has also taken just 21 points in the eight rounds since the summer break.

READ MORE: F1 2025 driver line-up with every team’s confirmed entry for the grid

So, if Red Bull were to retain Perez next term, Button believes his return would not be based on sporting merit. One reason may be that Perez wants Red Bull to pay him £16m to tear up his contract early. Another reason may be that Perez brings in a lot of money in sponsorship.

Button told Sky Sports F1 (29/11, 13:19): “For him to come out here and put in a good result is difficult when you’ve had such a negative run of results.

“But if he comes out and has two magnificent races [and] beats Max Verstappen, he’s got a really good chance of keeping his drive because everyone just thinks of that last race.

“But if it continues like it has continued I can’t see him [being] here next year. He’s not going to be here for his performance, is he?”

Sergio Perez brings millions in sponsorship but will cost Red Bull a fortune in prize money

Mexican telecommunications company Telmex has paid Red Bull $130m (£102m) since they signed Perez in the 2021 season. Brands, like KitKat and Disney+, also inject $30m (£23.5m) per year into Red Bull through Perez’s sponsorships. Red Bull are reluctant to lose that cash.

But discussions in Milton Keynes after the Abu Dhabi GP will have to take into account all of the millions Perez will cost Red Bull in the constructors’ championship. His lack of points will likely see McLaren or Ferrari rip the teams’ title away from Red Bull without a shock change.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Sergio Perez’s life outside F1 from net worth to nickname

It is estimated that Red Bull received $140m (£106m) for winning the 2023 F1 constructors’ title, while Mercedes made $131m (£99m) for finishing second, Ferrari took $122m (£93m) for third place and McLaren banked $113m (£86m) with their fourth-place finish last year.

Red Bull are guaranteed to at least finish in third place this term as Mercedes cannot catch their rivals. But Red Bull are fighting nearly single-handily with Verstappen against McLaren duo Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri plus the Ferrari pair of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz.