Red Bull driver Max Verstappen could escape a one-race ban in the F1 2025 season even if he hits the FIA’s 12-point threshold.

That is the claim of former Williams and McLaren driver Juan Pablo Montoya, who believes the authorities could “change the rules” to prevent Verstappen from being forced to miss a race.

Would the FIA really ban Max Verstappen?

Verstappen finds himself on the brink of a ban after receiving three penalty points for an ugly clash with George Russell at the Spanish Grand Prix earlier this month.

Under F1’s current punishment system, introduced in 2014, drivers are hit with an automatic ban if they accumulate 12 penalty points over a 12-month period.

Former Haas driver Kevin Magnussen became the first driver to be banned under the system in 2024, missing the Azerbaijan Grand Prix after hitting the 12-point threshold at the previous race in Italy.

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Verstappen currently sits on 11 penalty points, with the two he collected for causing a collision with McLaren driver Lando Norris at last year’s Austrian Grand Prix set to be wiped from his tally on June 30.

It means he must navigate the next two races in Canada and Austria without adding to his score.

If Verstappen reaches 12 penalty points in Canada, he will automatically be banned from the Austrian Grand Prix, Red Bull’s home race and one annually attended by thousands of Verstappen fanatics.

Appearing on the MontoyAS podcast, six-time F1 race winner Montoya claimed that the FIA will likely to everything to ensure that worst-case scenario does not become a reality.

He said: “The key question is whether Max Verstappen actually has to skip a race if he gets a 12th penalty [point].

“Suppose he has to miss the Austrian GP because of that. Ninety per cent of the audience there is Dutch. Nobody would go to that race then.

“So what will it be? How will the public react? Are they going to sabotage the race, for example?

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they change the rules before anything can happen at all.”

He later added: “Sportingly, they must punish him.

“But that brings headaches I don’t wish on anyone. Really, they will pray Max Verstappen does nothing wrong.”

As reported last week, PlanetF1.com understands that Red Bull are likely to choose between Racing Bulls drivers Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson in the event of Verstappen picking up a ban.

Reports elsewhere had claimed that Amuyu Iwasa, the Honda-backed F2 driver, would get the nod to step up and temporarily form an all-Japanese lineup with Yuki Tsunoda in Verstappen’s absence.

However, PlanetF1.com has learned from sources close to the situation that the claims are wide of the mark with Hadjar and Lawson considered the frontrunners to step into Verstappen’s RB21.

Lawson had a miserable stint as Verstappen’s team-mate at the start of the F1 2025 season, failing to progress from Q1 across the first two races in Australia and China before being replaced by Tsunoda.

Despite his struggles in Red Bull’s 2025 car, Lawson is expected to be afforded the same opportunity as Hadjar to stake his claim for a call up if Verstappen is banned.

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Meanwhile, serving FIA steward Derek Warwick has defended the punishment handed out to Verstappen in Spain despite calls, led by 2016 World Champion Nico Rosberg, for the Red Bull driver to have been disqualified on the spot.

Warwick, whose most recent appearance in the stewards’ room came at last month’s Miami Grand Prix, insisted that Verstappen was “absolutely wrong” in his clash with Russell and described the FIA’s response to the incident as “perfect.”

He said: “I think everyone has to realise that if you are a driver who is used to winning like Max, it is very difficult when things go against you in a race that on paper, with three stops, looks like you could win.

“And we all know he’s a winner.

“Should he have done what he did, in Turn 5 with George Russell? Absolutely not. Did he get a penalty for that? Yes.

“Sebastian Vettel was once given a 10-second drive-through penalty in Baku after an incident with Lewis Hamilton [in 2017], but he deliberately drove into Lewis.

“Whereas if you watch this video, it seems to me that although he dove in, he then did turn away from George, but momentum pushed him against George.

“It is absolutely wrong and the FIA was right to give him a penalty.

“I think many people would say he should have been given a suspension as an example to young karters, and they are probably right, but I think the penalty was perfect.

“You have to look at each incident individually. This is not what I like to see.”

Warwick’s comments to a prominent gambling outlet are likely to reignite the debate over a conflict of interest among FIA stewards following a high-profile case involving Johnny Herbert, the three-time F1 race winner, last season.

Herbert left his role as an FIA steward ahead of the F1 2025 season after repeatedly criticising Verstappen on gambling platforms last year, with FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem admitting Herbert’s position in the referee role had become untenable.

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