Max Verstappen fans will love what ‘paddock insiders’ are saying about his 2025 F1 title chances

Max Verstappen had the best car on the F1 grid for the first five races of the 2024 season. That allowed him to pick up four dominant wins, with Sergio Perez joining him on the podium.

But from the Miami Grand Prix onwards, Red Bull were no longer supreme. Lando Norris required a bit of luck that day – a safety-car played perfectly into his hands – but McLaren issued a statement by pulling away after the restart.

The upgraded MCL38 was a match for the RB20, if not a superior package. Zak Brown’s squad stormed to the constructors’ title, with Red Bull dropping to third – 77 points behind.

From Miami onwards, Verstappen scored 327 points. Even though that sequence included a 10-race drought, he beat every other driver by at least 11.

This was effectively a simulation of the 2025 season. The teams are pushing against the ceiling of their ground-effect concepts, so they’re likely to be extremely close in performance.

Paddock insiders warn about underestimating Max Verstappen in 2025

Some may have understandable doubts about Red Bull’s 2025 prospects. They fell to third in the pecking order last season, and they’ve lost one of F1’s greatest technical minds in Adrian Newey – together with sporting director Jonathan Wheatley.

Motorsport Italy’s Roberto Chinchero has spoken to ‘various insiders’ in the F1 paddock about how the frontrunners are shaping up. They refused to talk down Red Bull.

‘No one’ is ready to give up on Verstappen. While his chances will naturally ‘depend a lot’ on the car’s ‘technical form’, there’s a feeling that he can maximise any opportunity.

The F1 staff also note that Red Bull have been the masters of ground-effect aerodynamics. They crushed the competition in 2022 and especially 2023, and kept their drivers’ title streak going last season.

Christian Horner rarely criticises Max Verstappen – when he did, the Dutchman listened

Verstappen’s fans will love hearing these predictions. It’s obvious just how much respect he commands, and also how much fear he generates.

Zak Brown says the Red Bull ‘environment was destabilised’ last year by off-track developments. There’s a new structure in place now, and a new driver in Liam Lawson, but they can’t afford the kind of adaptation period that hurts their results.

The luxury they have is that Verstappen can drag a car beyond where it ought to be. The comparison with Perez last season was proof.

Christian Horner criticised Verstappen in 2018, calling for him to change his approach after a spate of early mishaps. He secretly listened, and since then he’s been spoken about in almost solely reverential terms at Milton Keynes.