While Max Verstappen has said he is committed to Red Bull for good, Juan Pablo Montoya believes Verstappen will leave and Mercedes talks are underway.

Red Bull brought Verstappen onto the Formula 1 grid as a 17-year-old back in 2015 at their junior team Toro Rosso, with the Dutchman since going on to become a four-time World Champion, his 2024 triumph making it four in a row. But, is a move to Mercedes in his future?

Max Verstappen tipped to ‘jump ship’ for Mercedes

Former Williams and McLaren racer Juan Pablo Montoya believes Verstappen will be making that team swap – one which was rumoured in 2024 with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff making his interest clear – in the coming years, especially if Red Bull cannot master the new 2026 engines.

With new chassis and power unit regulations arriving that year, Red Bull has taken the leap of becoming an engine manufacturer for the first time, working in partnership with Ford.

“I think Max Verstappen will end up leaving in a couple of years. He won’t leave the sport. It’s the ultimate. He’ll leave Red Bull,” Montoya predicted to Instant Casino.

“He doesn’t have it that difficult. Yes, it’s hard because he works really hard. He has a stable job. And he kind of controls a lot of what happens.

“The big question is, is Max willing to play cool if 2026 is bad? You know, if Red Bull comes with the powertrains and it’s not where it needs to be, is Max going to be happy running tenth? No.

“And Mercedes comes with an offer, he is going to jump ship straight away. It’s very easy to be loyal when you win in races. If I was in his shoes for sure I would be looking at that already.

“It would surprise me if he’s not.”

How Max Verstappen’s Red Bull contract compares

👉 F1 driver contracts: What is the contract status of every driver on the 2024 grid?

👉 F1 2025 driver line-up: Who is already confirmed for the 2025 grid?

That being said, Verstappen has claimed that his “target” is to complete his Formula 1 career with Red Bull.

Verstappen’s future with the team was called into question earlier in 2024 due to the off-track saga unfolding at Red Bull, with relations between his father Jos and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner becoming strained.

“You would rather not have to deal with all these kind of things,” Verstappen said in an interview with PA news agency.

“I always tried to focus on the performance, work with the engineers, and try not to make it all blow up.

“I have a really good relationship [with Horner]. It is a strong relationship.

“It is not like I need to try to win the World Championship somewhere else. That is not a desire from my side. I am just happy where I am at.

“And it would also be very beautiful if you just could stay with one team and race there forever. I would like to believe [that could be with Red Bull]. That is the target.”

However, Montoya believes that is just Verstappen’s stance in front of the public eye.

“Publicly he would say, ’No way,’ but internally I would be surprised if a conversation was not going on,” Montoya concluded on his Verstappen to Mercedes theory.

The driver line-up at Mercedes is set for F1 2025, with teenage sensation Kimi Antonelli promoted to partner George Russell following Lewis Hamilton’s departure for Ferrari, though Russell’s current Mercedes deal expires at the end of 2025.

Read next: Max Verstappen left ‘so happy’ with FIA community service order