Max Verstappen’s Red Bull ‘breaking point’ has been identified which will decide whether he leaves in 2026

Red Bull Racing driver Max Verstappen finds himself nearly two race wins behind championship leader Oscar Piastri after the first 10 races of the 2025 Formula 1 season.

Max Verstappen made up ground on the McLaren star at the Canadian Grand Prix after finishing second behind George Russell.

Piastri still has a 43-point lead over Verstappen, but Lando Norris’ late crash closes the gap between the Red Bull star and his nearest rival.

Verstappen has made it clear that he doesn’t want to spend his entire career racing in Formula 1, as his recent GT3 test at Spa after the race in Montreal proves.

It means that if the four-time world champion starts to feel that he can’t add to that tally while racing for team principal Christian Horner’s outfit, then he may have to consider his options.

Mercedes have been interested in signing Verstappen for some time, and neither of their current drivers is committed to 2026.

Verstappen won’t be joining Aston Martin despite the arrival of Adrian Newey and Honda power unit next season, but journalist Diego Mejia believes Red Bull have to nail one component on next year’s car to convince Verstappen to stay.

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Red Bull’s 2026 power unit is Max Verstappen’s ‘breaking point’ for staying at the team

Mejia was speaking on the Pit Pass Analysis Podcast about Verstappen’s Formula 1 future.

He explained: “I think Mercedes would like to benefit from what they have been working on and the sudden opportunity that they have to give Kimi because Lewis was suddenly leaving.

“I mean, it would be like making yet another change within three years, I don’t know.

“From what we have seen this year, all the drivers changing to different teams, many of them are not working as expected.

“So it’s not as easy. Yeah, there’s a big regulation change in between. But for now, I think that it will be more likely to stay the way it is and having to wait it out a year or two before we see a massive change.

“But yeah, I think Max and his management know more about where Red Bull is with their power unit, which is, I think, the breaking point for things to unfold in a different way than how it’s looking now.”

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Christian Horner warns of ‘massive leap’ ahead of the 2026 F1 season for Red Bull

There are plenty of questions that still need to be answered at Red Bull before the lights go out at the season opener in Australia next season.

Horner has warned that Red Bull are taking a massive leap next year, especially as the team are developing their own engines for the first time.

Red Bull Powertrains are working alongside Ford going into next season after their partnership with Honda ended.

It provides a unique challenge for Red Bull and puts added pressure on Horner to get things right with Verstappen’s future potentially on the line.

Verstappen will stay at Red Bull if he has the slightest hope of winning races in their car next year, but there are other issues the team need to iron out over the coming months.

Yuki Tsunoda is the latest driver to fail to reach the required level at Red Bull, and so Horner needs to decide who will join Verstappen in the adjacent garage next year.

That has a knock-on effect on the Racing Bulls line-up too, with Isack Hadjar now Red Bull’s favoured candidate for the 2026 season.