The main talking point heading into the Spanish Grand Prix weekend is, of course, the new Technical Directive and the question of whether — and to what extent — it will shift the competitive order, both in terms of on-track performance and championship dynamics.

But following FP2, the key question now is: will this new Technical Directive actually change anything? Let’s dive into the telemetry data, which offers a rather clear answer.

Is McLaren still the team to beat?

With the first third of the season now behind us, McLaren have firmly established themselves as the benchmark in terms of outright pace — something that’s also reflected in the Constructors’ Championship standings. Round nine was expected to be pivotal, as this weekend marks the introduction of new regulations limiting the flexibility of front wings.

This topic gained traction last season when Mercedes’ front wing and McLaren’s so-called ‘mini-DRS system’ were under the spotlight. Since then, several teams have explored the potential benefits of flexible front and rear wings.

Yet, after a far more representative second free practice session compared to FP1, the pecking order appears largely unchanged.

Oscar Piastri topped the timesheets, with Russell in second and Verstappen third. Lando Norris ended the session fourth, matching Max’s best lap time to the thousandth. So, it would appear McLaren remains the team to beat?

And the data supports that — at least over one lap — with Piastri going quickest in all three sectors during his best lap in FP2.

If we compare the speed and delta across the top three drivers, we can see Piastri consistently gaining time over both Russell and Verstappen.

Russell, notably, was the slowest in the speed traps — a result of the slightly larger rear wing Mercedes opted for, which cost him time at the very start of the lap.

In Turn 3, a highly front-limited corner demanding strong front-end grip, McLaren showed the best balance — with Piastri gaining 0.2s over Russell. The struggles continued for the Mercedes driver in Turn 4, where once again he failed to generate the required grip and lost more time.

Both corners require a stable front end and are a clear illustration of Mercedes’ ongoing issues — potentially related to the high track temperatures and, possibly, the new TD. Reduced front wing flexibility in fast to medium-speed corners leads to reduced front-end downforce and a tendency towards understeer.

Telemetry shows this quite clearly in T4, where Russell’s apex speed is lower than Piastri’s, even though his throttle input is higher. Put simply, the car doesn’t rotate as intended, and the front tyres start sliding — a similar situation plays out again in Turn 9.

While the TD likely played a part, it’s fair to say it’s not the sole reason for this — these are marginal gains and fine differences.

Verstappen’s biggest struggles were found in the third sector, particularly the final two corners. Much like Russell, Max suffered through Turn 13 — a long, fast corner where Piastri carried more apex speed despite both drivers being full throttle throughout. Once again, it points to front-end instability.

From this, we can conclude that McLaren continue to lead the way in the most crucial parts of the lap — despite the new front wing rules. And it’s these details that will decide the pole on Saturday.

A stable balance across the entire circuit is critical, especially in the highly technical third sector. Tyre management — especially the front tyres — will also be essential at the end of the lap. The team who gets that right will give themselves the best shot at pole position.

More on the new FIA Technical Directive

👉 Mercedes focus their efforts elsewhere, as there’s no new front wing on the menu

👉 Ferrari make big changes to SF-25 front wing after new FIA tests

Has the new TD affected race pace?

During FP2, most teams used their time on track to gather long-run data and begin shaping their race strategies. Interestingly, none of the front-running drivers ran the hard compound — instead focusing exclusively on softs and mediums. It’s worth noting that Pirelli opted for the hardest possible combination this weekend: C1 (hard), C2 (medium), and C3 (soft).

Last year’s race in Barcelona saw most teams opting for two-stop strategies, favouring softs and mediums — and from what we’ve seen in FP2, we could be looking at a similar scenario this time around.

Looking at the medium compound long runs, McLaren didn’t look quite as dominant as they did in the short runs. A few caveats apply here, particularly stint length and tyre wear. From the chart, it’s clear Piastri ran the longest stint on the most worn mediums compared to the rest.

Norris, meanwhile, completed a shorter simulation on fresher medium tyres and unsurprisingly posted stronger average lap times. McLaren split their data gathering, with Norris on softs and Piastri on mediums for their long runs.

On the soft compound, the story is much the same for Hamilton, whose three-lap stint on slightly used mediums shouldn’t be directly compared with the rest.

What stands out is that Verstappen once again delivered the best time, followed by Norris, Leclerc, and Russell — the latter having completed the most laps.

One thing to keep in mind when analysing this data is that we simply don’t know fuel loads, engine modes, or the specific ideas each team was trying to test — so any conclusions must be drawn with a degree of caution.

Read next: Explaining F1’s phantom updates and why McLaren do have a new front wing after all