Never mind retaining the World title, Max Verstappen will not even be runner-up as Red Bull shift lanes to F1 2026 and therefore can’t focus on the big performance gains needed to beat McLaren this season.

Simply put, by Guenther Steiner, that also means McLaren’s first 1-2 in the Drivers’ Championship since Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna in 1989.

McLaren 1-2 with Max Verstappen P3 at best?

Having won the first of his four successive World titles in a wheel-to-wheel battle against Lewis Hamilton in 2021, Verstappen faces his sternest challenge since as he takes on McLaren for the Drivers’ title.

But while Red Bull went into the F1 2025 season declaring the McLaren team-mates could potentially give Verstappen a helping hand by taking points off one another, the Dutchman has instead found himself trailing both McLaren drivers.

Oscar Piastri, who has won three Grands Prix, sits P1 by 10 points ahead of his team-mate Lando Norris, with Verstappen two points behind the Briton.

Instead of tripping each other up, McLaren have more Grand Prix wins than Verstappen has podiums.

F1 2025: The season’s winners and losers

👉 The results of the F1 2025 championship

👉 The updated Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship standings

And it is a trend that former Haas team boss Steiner doesn’t believe will change this season.

Put to him that McLaren will finish 1-2 in the Drivers’ standings, Steiner emphatically told The Red Flags podcast: “Yes.”

Pressed on that and whether Verstappen could upset that 1-2, the Italian replied: “No. I think he will be fighting, but he cannot do it because it’s just too much for one person to do, you know?

“I think the McLaren is, at the moment, just a better car and I think now going forward, people will shift very heavily to 2026 rules. So I don’t expect Red Bull to have big upgrades or big performance gains anymore.”

Although Red Bull have already brought updates to the RB21, Helmut Marko having declared their Saudi Arabian GP upgrades were a “step forward” as Verstappen claimed pole position and second place in the Grand Prix, there will come a point this season that the Milton Keynes squad will turn their full focus to F1 2026.

Formula 1 is not only introducing new engines next season but also new cars, the sport adopting smaller, lighter, more agile cars in the hope of improving overtaking. It means there will come a point when each team decides to call time on upgrading their 2025 cars to focus solely on 2026.

And given Red Bull’s deficit to McLaren, that could not only mean a McLaren 1-2, but if you ask Steiner, a Piastri World title.

Piastri leapfrogged Norris in the standings at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix as he clinched his third Grand Prix win of the season while his team-mate was off the podium in fourth place.

Steiner, a long-time Piastri fan, applauded the Australian’s calm nature as he took the fight to Verstappen on the opening lap in Jeddah, wasn’t rattled by the Dutchman’s off-track antiscs at Turn 1, and ultimately clinched the race win.

He believes it’s Piastri’s character that sets him apart from his team-mate Norris.

“I saw it coming, I told you all the way along,” he said, adding: “How does it feel to be once, once in a while, right? Oh, pretty good!”

“We all see, see it. He’s so calm about things, so well behaved. There is nothing which seems to unsettle him. If he finishes second, yeah, he’s not happy, but he’s not throwing the toys out, you know. It’s like very mature.

“That what I always said, because talent-wise, I think they’re equal. But he just stays calm whatever happens. He seemed to be very non-Italian.”

But Steiner warned Piastri he needs to stay ahead of Norris because if, and it’s a big if, Verstappen does get involved, McLaren will have to make the call to support one of their two drivers.

For now, though, he says McLaren should let them race.

“It’s too soon, yeah,” he said when asked about team orders. “But if Max keeps doing what he’s doing in the moment, I think they need to tell one to get in line.

“I was thinking, if McLaren can be, I would say, quite dominant – it’s not a real dominance because every time something gets in the way. [But] if they’re not threatened by anybody else, I think Zak lets them go to the end. That’s my opinion.

“But if Max comes close, I think after the summer break, there will be ‘Lando get in line’.”

Post-Jeddah marks the first time in his two-and-a-bit-year career that Piastri has led the Formula 1 World Championship standings.

Asked if that changes his approach, the 24-year-old said: “No. I still want to go out and try and win every race I can.

“I was saying before, I’m not that bothered by the fact that I’m leading the championship, but I’m proud of the work and the reasons behind why we’re leading the championship.

“Melbourne wasn’t a great start to the year in terms of results. But from the moment I’ve hit the track this season, I felt like I’ve been in a good place.

“Leading the championship is a result of all the hard work we’ve done in the off-season, the hard work I’ve done personally, the hard work the team’s done.

“I’m more proud of all of those things than I am of the fact that I’m leading the championship because, ultimately, I want to be leading it after round 24, not round five.”

As for Verstappen, he fears he’s just making up the numbers in F1 2025.

“McLaren are not my rivals right now. I am just taking part in this World Championship,” he said.

When pressed by Motorsport.com on whether he meant he didn’t see himself competing for the actual title, he replied: “No, I don’t.”

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