Red Bull are the fourth-fastest team going into the F1 2025 season-opener in Melbourne, so believes Juan Pablo Montoya.

However, the seven-time grand prix winner believes many teams are “still playing games” in terms of their true pace ahead of the season getting underway.

Montoya ‘agrees’ Max Verstappen cannot win Australian GP

McLaren came out of the three-day Bahrain test looking like the team to beat, PlanetF1.com’s best guess over the F1 2025 pecking order starting out, formed from conversations with teams across the paddock and trackside observations, making them the front-runner, followed by Red Bull/Mercedes and Ferrari behind them.

Verstappen would later rule himself out of contention to win the first race in Melbourne – where he begins the pursuit of a fifth straight World Championship – with Red Bull technical director Pierre Wache admitting that their new challenger – the RB21 – “did not respond how we wanted at times” to setup changes during the Bahrain test.

“I agree [with Verstappen that Red Bull can’t win in Melbourne],” Montoya declared to Oddspedia.

Furthermore, Montoya would place Red Bull fourth on the road going into the Australian GP, with the caveat of most teams still not showing their true hand, the Colombian racer believes.

“McLaren are ahead but how far?” Montoya pondered. “The Ferraris are going to be quite good, and the Mercedes.

“I think a lot of people were hiding their pace [in testing], not only McLaren.

“They’re still playing games at this stage.

“I do think right now Red Bull are probably the fourth team on the grid.”

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F1 2025 is being billed as potentially one of the closest-fought seasons yet, with McLaren, Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes all harbouring title ambitions.

Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move to Ferrari, Mercedes promoting 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli, and the Alpine future of Jack Doohan with Franco Colapinto joining as reserve, are among the intriguing subplots going into the new season of action.

“If it’s a really smooth weekend, I think McLaren should win it,” Montoya continued. “But there are so many fascinating elements.

“It’s [Oscar] Piastri’s home race. Is he going to step out of Lando [Norris]’s shadow [at McLaren]? Is that rivalry going to create some friction? Is that going to set a different tone for the year?

“Is Lewis Hamilton going to be able to beat [Charles] Leclerc? How much of a gap is there going to be between them?

“And what’s going to happen with Antonelli? He’s either going to be a massive shining star or with so many eyes on him, will he fold under the pressure?

“That’s going to be a pretty good story. The Carlos Sainz story, how competitive are Williams going to be? That’ll be intriguing.

“It’s Doohan’s home race as well, and everybody’s got their eyes on him.”

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