Red Bull will be desperate to avoid Sebastian Vettel Suzuka situation with Max Verstappen amid 2025 woes

Max Verstappen is facing the toughest challenge to his world championship in the 2025 Formula 1 season.

Since the turn of the decade, Verstappen and Red Bull have been almost unstoppable. The team aced the ground effect regulation in 2022, which has seen the Dutchman win the last four titles on the spin.

The 27-year-old has matched the feat achieved by Sebastian Vettel, who won four consecutive championships between 2010 and 2013. Verstappen has the chance to become only the second F1 driver in history to win five in a row this year.

However, Red Bull have clearly regressed over the last few months, with his 2025 car proving to be incredibly difficult to drive. Verstappen lost the top spot in the standings for the first time since the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix after Norris won in Australia – highlighting just how dominant he has been.

Verstappen’s concerns about the RB21 in 2025 seemed to have been ignored so far, with Red Bull instead opting to demote his teammate Liam Lawson back to Racing Bulls after a dismal start to the year. Verstappen disagreed with Lawson’s exit as he felt results would have been better with a stronger car.

Red Bull’s struggles have led to speculation that the four-time champion could leave before his contract expires in 2028. Heading into the Japanese Grand Prix, the Milton Keynes-based outfit are in the same position now as they were with Vettel in 2014.

Red Bull will want to avoid Max Verstappen getting out of his contract like Sebastian Vettel did at Suzuka in 2014

After winning his four world titles, Vettel and Red Bull regressed in 2014 as Mercedes built the dominant car for the turbo-hybrid era. That year, the German was beaten by teammate Daniel Ricciardo as he failed to win a race – scoring four podiums.

With Red Bull’s dramatic drop in performance, Vettel used the exit clause in his contract to join Ferrari, with the deal being announced at the Japanese Grand Prix that season. In 2025, the team have the same situation with Verstappen.

Verstappen has an exit clause in his contract that allows him to leave if Red Bull are out of the top three in the constructors’ championship. Journalist Matt Clayton brought up the similarities between the Dutchman and Vettel in 2014 on Pit Talk – the team will be desperate to avoid the situation repeating.

“If this does not go well, and Max is looking at a car that’s really, really problematic to drive. There doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of being able to assist him in this fight with the three other teams at the front of Formula 1, then what is Max going to think?” said Clayton.

“And is there a performance clause in his contract if the car falls to a certain position in the constructors’ championship? The reason we say this and the reason we bring up Suzuka is, in 2014, that was the weekend it was announced that Sebastian Vettel was going to Ferrari.

“Because that car had dropped so far down the constructors’ standings that Seb had an out clause in his contract to get out of there. So you just wonder what it means longer term for the biggest ace Red Bull has in it’s pack right now.

“Is they have a four-time reigning world champion who’s doing everything he can to finish fourth in a race in Shanghai.”

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Which teams are in the race to sign Max Verstappen if he leaves Red Bull?

Verstappen’s future at Red Bull will be a topic of discussion throughout 2025. With the team’s struggles thus far this season, it seems more likely than ever that the Dutchman could be on the move.

Unlike Vettel, Ferrari is seemingly off the table with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton signed for the long term. However, Verstappen does have attractive suitors.

Mercedes and Aston Martin have been heavily linked with the 27-year-old, with the former having a slight edge given their previous interest. Toto Wolff is confident about signing Verstappen for 2026 or 2027 if he becomes available.

Aston Martin are in negotiations with Verstappen over the deal, with Adrian Newey and Honda making the Silverstone-based outfit a highly lucrative option. Red Bull must act fast to improve their car if they want to keep hold of their star driver.

Helmut Marko will not follow Verstappen if he leaves Red Bull. While having commitment from one key figure is a positive, they risk losing the biggest piece of their puzzle if they cannot fix their problems.