Rumours on Max Verstappen and his Red Bull future have bubbled back up over recent weeks with a range of outcomes mooted.

And seven-time grand prix winner Juan Pablo Montoya has put together a detailed scenario which he sees unfolding if Mercedes make a move for Verstappen, giving George Russell a clear choice to make over his future, while Montoya warned Red Bull that all they would be left with is “three drivers who don’t finish and don’t score points.”

Max Verstappen: F1 future with Red Bull or elsewhere?

Additional reporting by Thomas Maher

Verstappen is chasing a fifth consecutive World Championship win in F1 2025, but while he has positioned himself very much in the title race early doors, just the one victory from the opening five grands prix has fuelled fresh speculation over his future.

Driving those rumours is a performance-related exit clause which Red Bull team principal Christian Horner confirmed the existence of to media including PlanetF1.com last year. It is speculated that Verstappen could trigger that clause if he spends a significant amount of the season outside the top three in the Championship.

Indeed, Red Bull senior advisor Helmut Marko predicted recently that Verstappen’s exit clause could become a hot topic around the F1 2025 summer break.

Verstappen reaffirmed his commitment to Red Bull at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, where Horner also guaranteed Verstappen’s presence at the wheel of the 2026 Red Bull, but that has not put an end to talk of Verstappen joining Mercedes, Aston Martin or even taking a sabbatical.

And Montoya, in conversation with AS, suggested that Mercedes would not pass on the chance to sign Verstappen, which would leave Russell with a clear choice of stay or go from Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff.

Russell has made a strong start to F1 2025, visiting the podium in three of the five grands prix, while rookie team-mate Kimi Antonelli has made an impressive start to F1 life.

“I think what would happen would be that Toto would sit Russell down and say, ‘I want you to be with me, but we’re going to sign Max. If you’re comfortable racing with Max and working together with Max, the seat is yours. If you’re not comfortable, the door is open,’” said Montoya.

“I think that’s the future. Let’s see. I think Antonelli will find a place to race and I think Mercedes will put him somewhere. I don’t know where and there aren’t many options.”

But, in Montoya’s opinion, while Mercedes would want Verstappen for his speed, he also sees an ulterior motive in regards to wounding rivals Red Bull.

“But I really think if they have a real opportunity to sign Max, they’ll do it,” Montoya continued. “On the one hand to have Max, on the other hand, for the chance to destabilise because if you take Max away from Red Bull, who do they have? Three drivers who don’t finish and don’t score points.”

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The recent return of Verstappen to Mercedes talk triggered Williams team principal James Vowles – formerly Mercedes’ strategy chief – to say “I don’t think so” when asked by the media, including PlanetF1.com, whether he thought Verstappen and Russell could coexist as Mercedes team-mates.

He went on to warn Mercedes of “downsides” that come with Verstappen, for all his ability.

“I think they’re two very different characters,” Vowles continued in reference to Verstappen and Russell.

“I’m not Toto, but I would also say I think he’s got a really good driver line-up for the future.

“I think with Kimi – and yes, I’m biased, because I worked with him for a long period of time – but if you just look at the steps he’s making in qualifying, he’s making steps every single week and he’s only driven effectively for three races.

“He’s on a good pathway to be very, very competitive, so you keep investing in that.

“And George is delivering. He’s been a bit quiet, but you can’t really fault anything he’s done this year.

“So can you add a tiny bit more performance? Yes through Max. I think there is more performance to be added through Max.

“I don’t think anyone in the room would deny that he is extraordinary in what he can do and Japan was, for me, jaw dropping. Well done to him.

“But he comes with a lot of downsides as well that we have to acknowledge.

“And I think what Mercedes does have is a great culture with two drivers that are delivering near to the peak of the car and with one that’s on the way up.

“So I personally don’t think there’s a place for him.”

Russell, however, has made it be known that he would not shy away from having Verstappen as his Mercedes team-mate.

“Why wouldn’t they want to sign Max? It’s totally understandable,” Russell told the Press Association on the Verstappen to Mercedes talk.

“He’s the best at the moment. He’s a four-time World Champion. That’s not anything against me or Kimi. There’s two drivers for every team and he is one person.

“So that doesn’t concern me one bit because the performance is my currency and right now I think I am performing as good as anyone on this grid.”

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