After a phenomenal performance last weekend in Italy, things aren’t looking quite as bright for Red Bull around the streets of Monaco.

Let’s dive into the data and try to uncover what’s troubling the Austrian team in the Principality.

RB21’s inconsistency this season

The upgrade package Red Bull introduced in Imola last weekend turned out to be far more effective than expected. The goal of the upgrade was to reduce drag and improve aerodynamic balance, especially with the new floor that debuted in Miami one week earlier.

The pace in both qualifying and, more importantly, the race, was excellent – Max Verstappen would’ve likely had a solid shot at victory even without the perfectly timed virtual safety car, which essentially secured his win.

Heading into Monaco, the expectation was that Red Bull – or rather Max Verstappen – would continue that upward trend and go head-to-head with McLaren. However, it turned out to be Ferrari who stepped up, while Red Bull slipped to the third-fastest team.

Max only managed the fifth-fastest time in qualifying, which marked his second-worst Saturday result of the season after the Bahrain. Due to Lewis Hamilton’s penalty (for an incident involving Verstappen himself), the four-time World Champion will start Sunday’s race from P4.

Meanwhile, his teammate Yuki Tsunoda once again failed to make it into Q3 – missing out by just 0.153 seconds.

If we compare the telemetry of Tsunoda and Ocon, who surprisingly secured P10 at the end of Q2, we can clearly see where Yuki made his mistakes.

After an excellent launch out of T1, where the Japanese driver immediately gained an advantage, his first and second sectors were not strong enough to maintain the gap. Up until T15, the difference was marginal, and he was still in with a shot of beating Ocon’s lap time.

But a major error through T15 and T16 sealed his fate. Yuki had a clear track ahead, with no traffic affecting his lap – meaning the mistake was entirely driver-related.

In fact, Tsunoda’s final flying lap in Q2 was over 0.6 seconds slower than his personal best – a missed opportunity.

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Could Max Have Done Better?

Sadly, we’ve grown accustomed to whoever is driving Red Bull’s second seat falling far short of Verstappen’s level. But in Monaco, even Max hasn’t been able to handle the RB21 the way we’ve come to expect.

Despite good showings in FP1 and FP3, it was the second free practice – the most representative of qualifying conditions – where Max could do no better than P10.

It quickly became evident that the bumpy street surface of Monaco did not suit Red Bull’s current setup. The RB21 – like most cars of this era – is highly sensitive to ride height, but this trait appears more extreme in Red Bull’s case. Even during their era of dominance, street circuits have been a weak point due to this very reason.

Max struggled especially in the second sector, losing the most time to Lando Norris despite being quicker at one point – specifically in T6, the slowest corner on the calendar. Red Bull drivers have consistently held the highest apex speeds through this hairpin.

However, a poor exit out of T8 allowed Lando to regain the advantage, which only grew from that point on. Max also made a significant error in the fast T12 corner – and the graph clearly shows the speed delta between the two cars at this point.

It seems Max may have pushed too hard early in the lap, overheating the C6 tyres and losing grip through the final sector. The data suggests he had around 0.2 seconds left on the table, but even with a perfect lap, a spot on the front row was out of reach.

He’ll start Sunday’s race from P4. And if he gets a good launch, the battle is still very much open. It will be interesting to see how Oscar Piastri defends this time – after Max pulled off that stunning overtake in Imola.

One clear advantage Max has over the drivers ahead of him is Red Bull’s defined team structure – Yuki Tsunoda knows he’s the number two. Starting from P12, it’s a stretch, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Red Bull deploy him tactically to assist Verstappen.

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