Strategy Corner: Why Charles Leclerc’s extra set of mediums could be an F1 Spanish GP wild card

The Spanish Grand Prix used to be a byword for dull, processional racing, but that has changed – if only a little – in recent years.

That’s because while the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a known quantity, having been on the calendar since 1991, it’s slightly less intensively known than it used to be, since it’s no longer used as a venue for pre-season testing. The drivers could still lap it while blindfolded but the teams have rather less data than they would otherwise on tyre usage.

Another small but significant facet affecting strategy this weekend is the enforcement of a new technical directive clamping down on aero-elastic front wings through more stringent static load tests. So-called flexi-wings theoretically reduced drag, thereby improving top speed, but this was a lower-order effect. The main benefit was in mitigating some of the more severe balance shifts the current generation of ground-effect cars tend to experience mid-corner, generally moving from oversteer to understeer.

Besides a small potential lap time gain through giving drivers more confidence in corners, the main benefit was to help with tyre degradation. That’s why, given the lack of representative running time in race conditions, the response in the paddock to the effect of the new testing regime so far has been a general shrug of the shoulders.

As Pirelli’s motorsport manager Mario Isola pointed out in his post-qualifying briefing, the average cornering loads are higher but the pole position lap was slower… if only by two tenths of a second.

“More load that is not translating in more performance,” he said. “Then if you think about that, you understand what I’m saying…”

A little bit of everything

Since Barcelona has a relatively rough surface, a couple of decently long straights, and a broad variety of cornering speeds, plus two DRS zones – one of which includes a right-hand kink over a crest – it’s highly demanding on tyres. While Pirelli has gone a step softer in its compound choices at many rounds this year, for Barcelona it has stuck with the hardest three in the family: C1, C2, C3.

Even so, the race is shaping up to be a two-stopper because the experience of practice has shown that the hard-compound tyre, the C1, isn’t producing enough grip, so the cars have been sliding and inducing early degradation. It’s also been difficult for teams to find a balance on the C1, so they have migrated towards the softer compounds, which makes a two-stop race more likely.

The reason balance is such an issue is that teams generally set up their cars with a tendency to understeer in order to protect the rear tyres, which are usually more sensitive to thermal degradation. In Barcelona this presents a problem because the roughness of the surface, in combination with the high g-loadings from the fast corners, puts high stresses through the outside shoulder of the front-left tyre. So the teams are having to navigate the best compromise between wear at the front and degradation on both axles.

“Teams are trying to protect the rear axle, but then they over push the front and they can lose performance from both the axles basically,” said Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra after Friday practice.

“We’ve seen that the C1 showed very low grip, so it’s sliding. Also the balance is not good, it’s disconnected, front and rear axle very disconnected, so you have mid-corner understeer, especially in low-speed corners, then you have rear axle sliding in high-speed corners with low support. 

“So basically teams with the C1 are struggling a little bit more to find a good compromise and a good balance. Also we’ve seen this on pace data for the C1, and that’s why most of the teams focused on C2 and C3 in FP2 for the long runs, with better track conditions because of the track evolution, try to see where is the limit for the C2 and the C3 in terms of degradation.

“The degradation level is very similar between C2 and C3, you can apply different levels of management, but the pace is pretty similar. C3 has a higher grip level but a slightly higher degradation, C2 is slightly more consistent but lower level of grip. In the end they are quite close.

“So we do think that both the compounds will be good for the race.”

How many stops, and when?

Last year all but one driver did two stops; Yuki Tsunoda and Sergio Perez were the outliers, doing three. The most popular strategy among the frontrunners was soft-medium-soft, with the first stop coming between laps 13 and 17. But this race was shaped by events on the opening lap, where Lando Norris (the polesitter) and Max Verstappen became so consumed with one another that George Russell nipped around the outside from fourth on the grid to seize the lead.

This year the frontrunners only have one set of new soft tyres left – which they will likely use for the opening stint, because track position remains king at this circuit, and a good start is important. The first pitstop window will be as the race enters the early teens in terms of lap count; anyone stopping before it reaches double figures is in trouble, all other factors being equal.

What’s intriguing is what’s happening behind McLaren’s Norris and Oscar Piastri, the drivers on the front row. As with last year, one of the occupants of the second row – in this case Verstappen and Russell – could take advantage of those in front trying not to trip over one another.

Although Russell’s lead only lasted until the DRS was activated last year, the leading cars are closer together in terms of pace now.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is something of a wild card. He will start seventh, behind team-mate Lewis Hamilton, having run out of new softs in qualifying. But he has two sets of fresh mediums, which could come into play as those in front go soft-medium-soft, running used softs in the final stint.

It’s also possible that as the track continues to evolve and more rubber is laid down, the hitherto unfancied hard-compound tyre could also become a viable option in preference to the used soft.

“On paper,” said Isola, “If I have only one set of hard, one set of medium, and the soft is degrading more than expected, ideally, you should do soft, hard, medium.

“Because the fuel load is higher in the middle of the race compared to the end of the race. So you save a little bit of the medium.

“But I heard some comments around that it is also possible to have soft, medium, hard. Because they believe that the track evolution is important and with a better track at the end of the race, the hard is sliding less, and so giving a better performance.

“Who is right? I don’t know. But this is the idea.”

What if it rains?

The Jetstream is going to have to undergo a tumultuous change of direction overnight if the Spanish GP is to be affected by rain. Indeed, wet races at this venue are a distinct rarity.

It was gloomy, overcast and humid when the Circuit Barcelona-Catalunya hosted its first round of the world championship in September 1991 – note the vapour trails around the wings of Nigel Mansell’s Williams and Ayrton Senna’s McLaren in those evocative images of their duel in that race.

But warm and sunny weather has predominated since the race moved to a late-spring slot in the calendar. There hasn’t been a properly wet grand prix here in almost three decades – but it was a spectacular one.

In 1996 the Williams-Renault team had the quickest car on the grid, among the best to have flowed from Adrian Newey’s pen – but eventual champion Damon Hill was an early casualty, spinning off after starting from pole position.

In contrast to the Williams, Ferrari’s F310 wasn’t designer John Barnard’s best work but Michael Schumacher was hitting peak form and drove one of the finest races of his life, humbling the competition to win by 45s from Benetton’s Jean Alesi.