The moment Mercedes started to lose confidence in Lewis Hamilton long before Ferrari move

Lewis Hamilton signed a new Mercedes contract 15 months ago, a detail that’s easy to forget as he gets closer to joining Ferrari. There are just three races to go before he bids farewell to the Silver Arrows.

Hamilton was upset that Mercedes didn’t show more commitment in negotiations. He’s delivered six world championships for the team – an unprecedented achievement.

But Toto Wolff wanted the option to part with Hamilton at the end of 2024. Perhaps this was because he had his eyes on Max Verstappen, or because he didn’t want to block Kimi Antonelli’s path.

In the end, it was the driver rather than the team who activated the break clause. Wolff pursued Verstappen but always knew Antonelli was the most realistic candidate.

Some would argue that Hamilton’s performances this year justify Mercedes’ hesitance. He’s on course to finish outside the top six in the world championship for the first time in his career.

George Russell has also thrashed him 16-5 in qualifying. His partnership with Charles Leclerc will demonstrate whether his struggles were down to the limitations of the Mercedes W15, or a broader decline.

Mercedes’ move for George Russell showed that they were losing faith in Lewis Hamilton

Speaking on his YouTube channel, former F1 team manager Peter Windsor pinpointed the moment that Mercedes’ confidence in Hamilton started to wane. He traces it back to the signing of Russell.

By axing Valtteri Bottas, a driver Hamilton had comfortably beaten every season, they showed they were looking towards a future without the seven-time world champion. They were no longer ‘100%’ behind him.

Windsor believes a team should build around a driver of Hamilton’s calibre. That means having a clear number two in the other car if it keeps them happy.

Promoting Russell, the Mercedes academy driver who had shone over three years at Williams, apparently showed a lack of ‘respect’. He immediately beat Hamilton before the veteran struck back last year.

Windsor told his livestream audience: “Mercedes effectively said ‘we don’t believe in Lewis being our future for much longer’ the day they signed George Russell. As I’ve always said, if you’ve got Lewis Hamilton, you don’t need George Russell in the other car.

“You’ve got Lewis and Valtteri Bottas – really good combination. Valtteri would have been a very good teammate for Lewis all these years ever since Abu Dhabi 2021.

“I think that was the moment where Mercedes said ‘we’ve kind of lost a little bit of confidence in Lewis so we’re going to get George in the car, and anyway he’ll probably take us into the future’.

“If you’ve got Lewis Hamilton, you give him 100% and you have the teammate that he needs in the car to do the best job. If he wants to keep Valtteri, you keep Valtteri.

“A driver as good as Lewis or Max or Charles should have that amount of clout. And they didn’t do that. And that was the moment it all started to go wrong there I think. It’s disrespect apart from anything else.”

Lewis Hamilton may have grown tired of broken promises at Mercedes

In Mercedes’ defence, it was becoming hard to ignore Russell. He’d shown he was ready for a top seat after a prolonged period of grinding out results at Williams.

Russell memorably qualified second on the grid in one of F1’s slowest cars at a sodden Belgian Grand Prix. Had Wolff overlooked that performance, he would surely have begun to consider other offers.

Ultimately, there’s a growing sense that Hamilton’s exit is in the best interests of both parties. Mercedes believe Antonelli will be a superstar in his own right.

Hamilton was ‘promised’ a new dawn at Brackley at each car launch during the ground effect era. But Mercedes never delivered, and that’s why he’s now betting on Ferrari instead.