Red Bull already appear to be under pressure to retain Max Verstappen beyond the 2025 Formula 1 season.
That’s despite the fact that Max Verstappen is currently about to begin work towards a campaign that could see him match Michael Schumacher’s record of five consecutive world championships.
On paper, everything is going so well for the Dutchman at Red Bull that he’d have very little need to leave the team in the near future.
Verstappen’s current contract expires at the end of 2028 and the faith he’s put in Christian Horner’s outfit up to this point has served him well so far.
However, his reputation and incredible natural speed also make him an obvious target for any team trying to improve their line-up going into 2026 when new regulations are introduced to the sport.
Aston Martin have reportedly offered Verstappen a huge deal, and it would see him reunited with Adrian Newey and Honda’s power units when their relationship ends with Red Bull at the conclusion of this year.
Mercedes have a long-held interest in Verstappen too, and their driver line-up may be much easier to break up.
George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli both have contracts that only run until the end of this season.
Journalist Jon Noble was speaking on The Race F1’s YouTube channel and believes that if Antonelli doesn’t get up to speed quickly, Red Bull may have to worry about Mercedes trying to poach their star man.
Kimi Antonelli’s early 2025 form could impact Max Verstappen’s Red Bull future
Noble was asked if Mercedes would drop either of their drivers for Verstappen if he became available at the end of 2025 and said: “Interesting one, because if Max is available and as Toto Wolff said many times last year, any team boss would do handstands to get hold of a driver of Max Verstappen’s calibre.
“So, I cannot imagine a scenario where Max Verstappen walks into Toto’s office at the Mercedes motorhome in the paddock and says, ‘I’ll give you a deal’ and he says, ‘Oh no, actually we’re not massively interested.’
“I think if Max was available, Toto would take him, the question then is what happens?
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“And I think that first depends on Andrea Kimi Antonelli. If he is the sensation that Mercedes are convinced he is and is shining and starring and brilliant, then there would be no reason to drop him.
“So, you’ve then got the perfect combination of successful veteran, brilliant superstar Max Verstappen and the next generation in Antonelli.
“But if Antonelli’s having the wobbles, having some incidents and crashes and it’s not clicking, then do Mercedes think actually, in the short-term and as we head to 2026 and new regulations, is a line-up of Verstappen and Russell actually the best thing to take us forward.
“A lot of that will depend on how Antonelli performs in the first half of the year if Max becomes available.”
Kimi Antonelli tempering expectations at Mercedes ahead of his F1 debut
Toto Wolff knows he’s taking a risk in promoting Antonelli into Lewis Hamilton’s race seat.
Even though Mercedes have plenty of confidence in the young Italian’s ability, there’s a big difference between showing your potential in junior series and battling some of the best racing drivers in the world in Formula 1.
Antonelli has completed a comprehensive testing program with Mercedes, but there’s no substitute for racing on the track.
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Pre-season testing will give fans an indication of where Mercedes sit in the pecking order and the expectations that’ll be on Antonelli.
Wolff doesn’t expect miracles from Antonelli at the Australian Grand Prix, but the 18-year-old will be desperate to prove that he’s ready to challenge his rivals now, rather than taking part in a bedding in season ahead of the 2026 campaign.
If he’s not up to scratch and for whatever reason Verstappen becomes available, he’ll know there’s a real risk that he may have to sit out sooner rather than later.
