After the highs of the Japanese Grand Prix, the true extent of Red Bull’s car struggles came into sharp focus in Bahrain.

While Max Verstappen was able to compensate for some of the RB21’s shortcomings during the first three races of the season, the Bahrain round illustrated just how far the Milton Keynes-based squad has slipped since the same race last season.

What’s changed for Red Bull since the 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix?

At Sakhir in 2024, the season opener, Verstappen delivered the fifth grand chelem of his career to lead home a Red Bull 1-2 with the closest non-Red Bull driver being almost half a minute behind.

This year, despite a mid-race Safety Car, the Dutch driver was over half a minute behind the race winner and bemoaned a lack of balance and poise as he spoke to media, including PlanetF1.com, following the Grand Prix.

The question many will be asking is just what has changed so much in the space of a little over 12 months to turn what had been F1’s dominant force – coming off the back of the most crushing campaign the sport has ever seen – into an also-ran at the same circuit.

What is clear is that Red Bull has had to adjust to some big-name departures over recent times. The most notable, of course, was that of Adrian Newey, who, a little under 12 months ago, called time on his Red Bull F1 tenure to take a step back from F1 before signing up for a new, big-money challenge (and shareholding) at Aston Martin.

Along with that, Rob Marshall – the team’s chief engineering officer – departed in mid-2023 in order to take up a new role at McLaren as technical director, while sporting director Jonathan Wheatley couldn’t resist the opportunity for some upward mobility by taking up the role of team principal at Sauber/Audi – Wheatley having hit the glass ceiling of what was possible at Red Bull.

High-profile departures indeed, but there has also been continuity – leading figures like Paul Monaghan as chief of engineering, Pierre Waché as technical director (a role he’s held since 2018), and Enrico Balbo (head of aero since 2021) resisted offers from elsewhere to stay loyal to Horner’s camp.

With Newey’s influence on Red Bull’s design direction having waned, the big question of the RB21 – as a continuation of the regulations that have been in place since ’22 – has been whether it would continue to keep the Milton Keynes-based squad fighting for the championship after the struggles of last season.

The start of the championship has suggested that Red Bull is roughly there or thereabouts, anywhere from second to fourth-quickest team at any given event, but Bahrain hinted that the problems that plagued Red Bull’s attempt to develop through 2024 haven’t been eradicated – and that realisation appears to have hit hard.

With the RB20 having gone off the rails last year before the team managed to figure things out enough to steady the ship and deliver Verstappen another title, the rolling out of a car that may not be enough for Verstappen to fight with couldn’t have come at a worse time for Red Bull as it attempts to head off any possibility of the Dutch driver having his head turned by either a rival team, or the attraction of another challenge altogether as his personal life changes later this year.

Speculation has been rife around Verstappen’s future for a long time, stemming back to the start of last season and the emergence of tensions between Horner and Max’s father, Jos.

Rumours about lucrative offers from other teams have added to that uncertainty, as have opinions expressed as facts by leading pundits – all ways of trying to apply pressure to the long-standing relationship between Red Bull and Verstappen.

While race weekends like Japan could have gone some way to reassuring Verstappen that Red Bull has the oft-quoted strength and depth to continue winning in a post-Newey era, Bahrain illustrated that the problems with the car’s performance aren’t going to be fixed overnight, and Verstappen’s camp is understood to have made their feelings on this known very quickly.

How confident is Red Bull about fixing its car issues?

With Bahrain having brought into sharp focus just how badly a weekend can go at tracks that highlight the RB21’s deficiencies, the complexion of the championship could change very rapidly over the next few races.

While answers were there to be found in the setup at Suzuka, where a perfect weekend from Verstappen elevated Red Bull to win its first race without any Newey influence, Bahrain was a different story altogether – not helped by operational issues at the pitstops, which haven’t been fully determined yet as to whether its gantry electrical issues were caused by tangible breakage or a procedural breakdown.

The problem is that, with every race weekend that goes by, the potential rewards for a big improvement become smaller and smaller as the new F1 2026 regulations come into view.

With every team eyeing up the point of transition to a full-bore switch to development for the new regulations, calming this year’s car down is a priority – but for how long? In a budget cap age, throwing good money after bad will only hurt the team in the medium term if the knowledge of an exact fix isn’t there.

If it becomes clear that the problems are too much to turn around, at what point does Red Bull cry enough and switch over fully to next season, acquiescing its title challenge?

“The problems are understood,” Horner explained.

“I think the problem is that the solutions, with what we see within our tools compared to what we’re seeing on track at the moment, aren’t correlating.

“That’s what we need to get to the bottom of – why can we not see within our tools what we’re seeing on the circuit? When you end up with a disconnect like that, you have to obviously unpick it.

“We’ve got a strong technical team that has produced some amazing cars over the last few years, and I’m confident that they’ll get to the bottom of this issue, but, literally, the tool isn’t replicating what we’re seeing on the track. At that point, it’s like telling the time on two different watches.”

These correlation issues largely stem from Red Bull’s aging wind tunnel, and while the new wind tunnel on campus is ahead of schedule, it won’t come into play until 2027. Until then, figuring out the differences between software simulations and the real world is Red Bull’s biggest task – just as it was last year.

“The tools, primarily the wind tunnel, have driven us in a direction that isn’t replicating what we’re seeing on track,” Horner said.

“Then you end up with a mishmash between what your tools are telling you and what the track data is.

“Now, as we’re accumulating track data, it’s the track data that’s driving the solutions.

“I think you’ve got to understand where its weaknesses are, and the problem that we have is that we’re at the end of a set of regulations where the gains are very, very marginal.

“We’re seeing some of the shortcomings in our current tunnel, the struggles in that area.”

Upgrades are set to hit the RB21 at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, car changes that could be imperative for the team – not only to bolster its chances this year by improving the car, but also to convince Max Verstappen that his team has got to grips with its issues at a point where he appears to be at a genuine crossroads in his career.

Red Bull left reeling by Bahrain struggles

Tensions were high in the Red Bull camp following the chequered flag, with an atmosphere of subdued tension surrounding the team after Verstappen rescued sixth place on the final lap after pit-stop issues (caused by electrical gremlins in the pit gantry) had cost him significant time, on top of his struggles for balance and comfort on the brakes.

For once, there was no consternation about the second car, with Yuki Tsunoda having fared well through the weekend to make it into Q3 and deliver his maiden points for the team – the first time since Las Vegas ’24 that the second Red Bull car has scored.

But it was clear all was not well, with Red Bull’s top management diving behind closed doors immediately after the chequered flag as Horner, Monaghan, Waché, and Helmut Marko convened for a meeting before Horner emerged to speak to the media.

“I think it’s clear we understand what the problem is,” he said.

“It’s implementing a solution. It’s the entry phase of mid-corner to mid-corner that needs addressing.

“Giving him the ability, grip, and confidence to carry speed into the entry of corners is fundamentally an aero issue that we need to be able to give him that grip.”

Red Bull worked hard on widening the operating window for this year’s car, having been willing to sacrifice some performance in order to achieve this. Initially, this looked successful – Verstappen praised the handling of the car in the early weeks of the championship but was open about the fact that the pace wasn’t quite there.

It’s to Verstappen’s credit that he isn’t lashing out with temper at Red Bull and, instead, cuts a resigned, matter-of-fact figure when speaking to the media. He’s open and honest about things, saying, “McLaren are not my rivals right now. I am just taking part in this World Championship,” when speaking to Dutch media on Saturday.

Asked if that means he does not consider himself an F1 2025 title contender, Verstappen confirmed: “No, I don’t.”

“We keep discussing, keep trying to improve,” he said, elaborating after the race.

“We know that we have our problems. Even if you win a race, you know that doesn’t go away. I said that already last week.

“I’m not a guy that I think when you have positive or negative scenarios that you get influenced by them, just stay very neutral. So you just have to keep on working.”

What should be most concerning for Red Bull is the lack of a united front, which merely serves to further inflame a tense situation.

While Verstappen is being as frank and pragmatic as can be expected of him, his manager, Raymond Vermeulen, is understood to have reacted with anger to Red Bull’s poor showing and to have made those feelings known quite clearly. Such internal politics do little to help maintain team harmony or to keep everyone on a team pointing in the same direction now that things are more difficult than in the past.

Of particular concern at this point is the nature of the performance clauses in Verstappen’s contract, which speculation suggests revolves around Verstappen’s and the team’s championship positions by the time of the summer break.

While the looming F1 2026 regulations mean that, for the drivers, there will be an element of fortune involved in trying to be in the right place at the right time for such a technical revolution, up until now, there hasn’t been a team at which Verstappen is guaranteed more success than where he is.

But, if Red Bull truly is lost and unable to figure out how to improve the RB22, that won’t give Verstappen the confidence he needs to be convinced his team will get it right next year – particularly given the challenge of creating a brand-new, complex powertrain alongside the new chassis. Without that confidence, a rival may just tempt the Dutchman away.

If the performance clause conditions are triggered, allowing the Dutch driver to leave his contract before the current F1 2028 expiry, will he call time on his future with the team that made him?

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