Why Red Bull’s Japanese Grand Prix driver swap would benefit Liam Lawson more than Yuki Tsunoda

There have only been two races in the 2025 Formula 1 season so far and the driver market is set to see some action. Liam Lawson could be out of Red Bull.

The Kiwi driver earned a promotion to the Milton Keynes-based outfit for 2025 after impressing at Racing Bulls – previously AlphaTauri – in 2023 and 2024. Red Bull signed Lawson in the hopes that he would be an improvement on Sergio Perez.

However, that has not proven to be the case after the first two races. The 23-year-old crashed out of the Australian Grand Prix – having never driven the track before – after failing to reach Q2.

Things got even worse at the Chinese Grand Prix – another unfamiliar circuit – as he qualified last for the Sprint and Sunday’s race. While teammate Max Verstappen has grabbed a podium and sits second in the standings, Lawson has failed to score a point from the first two races.

His dismal performances have led to speculation that he could be out of his seat at the Japanese Grand Prix. It has been reported that Lawson could be swapped with Yuki Tsunoda, whom he snubbed for the second Red Bull seat over the winter.

Red Bull are set to have an emergency meeting this week to discuss plans, with reports suggesting Lawson’s fate is already decided. While the demotion back to Racing Bulls will be damaging, it could work to the Kiwi driver’s advantage.

READ MORE: Who is Red Bull Racing F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

Racing Bulls have an easier car to drive than Red Bull according to Max Verstappen

Lawson knows the Racing Bulls setup well, having raced in 11 Grand Prix with the Faenza outfit. In 2025, the VCARB 02 is capable of strong performance.

Tsunoda finished sixth in the Sprint in Shanghai, with the Japanese driver and Isack Hadjar both making Q3 for Sunday’s race. Qualifying an impressive seventh and ninth, the pair could not capitalise and failed to score points.

Racing Bulls have been unlucky not to score more than three points so far. A botched strategy call in Melbourne in the tricky conditions and Tsunoda’s front wing breaking in the dirty air of Lance Stroll’s Aston Martin in Shanghai cost the team most points.

The reality is that the VCARB 02 is stronger than many would have thought in pre-season. In many ways, it is an easier machine to drive than the RB21.

This is by the defending four-time champion’s own admission, who finished off the podium in Shanghai behind the McLarens and George Russell. Astonishingly, Verstappen said Lawson would be better off at Racing Bulls as the Red Bull is more difficult to drive.

It would be incredibly harsh for Lawson to lose his seat at the Milton Keynes squad after little to no time in the 2025 car. However, with Racing Bulls’ current trajectory and previous experience with the team, it is a move that could see a dramatic improvement from the Kiwi driver.

READ MORE: Racing Bulls driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

Yuki Tsunoda will inherit Liam Lawson’s problems that Red Bull do not know how to fix

While the move would be good for Lawson, it should spell bad news for Tsunoda. The 24-year-old has been unlucky to bag just three points so far with Racing Bulls – and he is set to switch to a more difficult machine.

Red Bull have tailored their cars to Verstappen’s driving style, with his previous teammates struggling to handle the high sensitivity of his setup. While Tsunoda does prefer a more stable front end, the RB21 is incredibly challenging.

If the Japanese driver can perform better than Lawson, then the latter has an unknown issue that needs addressing. However, his struggles point more in the direction of the machine he is driving – and Tsunoda will inherit these problems.

Red Bull clearly do not have the car to challenge for race wins at this stage. What is even more concerning is that Red Bull do not know how to fix the car, spelling trouble for whoever is driving the second RB21.

Verstappen himself admitted he does not want the driver swap as he fears it could ruin Lawson’s career. However, he should be more concerned about Tsunoda and the mammoth task he could face if he is thrown into the Red Bull seat.