Mercedes have been tipped for success in 2026, with rumours that they might start the new regulations with the strongest Formula 1 power unit.
Kimi Antonelli has been impressive in his rookie campaign and George Russell has stepped up to lead the team well too in 2025.
Being third in the constructors’ championship, just six points behind Ferrari, is a promising return for Mercedes, who will hope that upgrades can make them victory contenders as the season progresses.
With 15 rounds of the Formula 1 season to go, they will have to turn their full attention to the 2026 F1 regulations pretty soon, meaning that the next few updates could be their last.
Toto Wolff could axe Russell ahead of the expiry of his contract at the end of 2025. There’s now a small chance that a seat at Ferrari becomes available.
It would send the Formula 1 driver market into chaos, but not at a good time for Mercedes, who may have to postpone a Max Verstappen move ahead of cost-cutting measures at the company.
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Mercedes have one ‘big concern’ about their 2026 F1 car which may prevent Lewis Hamilton-era dominance
Mercedes admitted Antonelli has lost enthusiasm and it’s not hard to see why after the recent triple header – a lack of pace, reliability and no points from Imola, Monaco and Spain.
Their car operates well in colder temperatures, as was the case last year, but when the heat ramps up, they start to struggle a bit.
Antonelli risks a grid penalty in the future after it was discovered that his Spanish Grand Prix engine is not recoverable after a significant failure.
However, the more glaring issue for the future may be that they don’t understand why they struggle in different temperatures. It may carry over to 2026, as The Race reports.
“This is all about the design and simulation tools and the underlying science employed by Mercedes. Its high-temperature troubles this year prove it’s not understanding something, and it would be negligent simply to shrug and assume that won’t be the case next year.
“This is the big concern for Mercedes, and why it must continue to use the current car to sharpen its understanding to feed into the 2026 car.”
Fundamentally, Mercedes still need a good chassis to win races and repeating what they did with Lewis Hamilton between 2014 and 2021 won’t be possible, unless they can understand their current issues.
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Valtteri Bottas let Mercedes’ driver plans slip amid Max Verstappen interest
Currently, Mercedes have no drivers signed up for 2026, with Russell in the last year of his deal and Antonelli only on a one-year contract.
There have been flirtations in the media about a possible move for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, but he’s under contract there until 2028. It’s an unlikely scenario.
They’ve invested a lot into Antonelli and he has shown enough to stay so far. Letting him go after one season would be lunacy.
As for Russell, there aren’t really any other attractive openings on the grid for 2026 that he would want to pursue currently.
It may all change, but for now, the most likely scenario seems to be retaining both drivers and keeping some stability.
