The 2024 Formula 1 season has only just concluded, but the 2026 driver market will begin imminently. It only took until February last year before Lewis Hamilton made the seismic announcement of his move to Ferrari.
While there’s unlikely to be any movement that soon this time around, there are still plenty of intriguing storylines. Red Bull are the only team yet to confirm their 2025 line-up, with Sergio Perez expected to lose his seat to either Yuki Tsunoda or Liam Lawson.
Red Bull have doubts about Tsunoda, and Lawson has only started 11 races. Combine that with the team’s proclivity to change line-ups mid-season, and neither should feel safe even if they’re in Max Verstappen’s garage in Australia.
Verstappen can activate an exit clause in his contract ahead of the 2026 regulation changes. He chose to stay with Red Bull this year after initial uncertainty but the story is bound to resurface.
Elsewhere, George Russell is in the final year of his Mercedes contract. And there are rumours that new Alpine signing Jack Doohan only has a five-race deal.
After a dizzying reshuffle, the market should be more settled. But as the Red Bull/Perez story shows, contracts can be broken in F1.
George Russell and Max Verstappen could swap seats at Mercedes and Red Bull
The futures of Russell and Verstappen are clearly linked. If the world champion decides to leave, Mercedes appears his likeliest destination.
Toto Wolff has cultivated a strong relationship with Verstappen in the hope of signing him. Kimi Antonelli has reportedly signed a multi-year deal, which makes Russell appear more vulnerable.
Unlike Carlos Sainz, however, Russell could stay at the front of the F1 grid even if he loses his seat. Speaking on the JA on F1 podcast, Jonathan Noble floated a potential Mercedes/Red Bull swap.
Christian Horner has openly admitted interest in Russell, who won his third Grand Prix in Las Vegas. He could be the best replacement available, even if Hamilton is the only driver on the current grid who can really compare to Verstappen.
| CATEGORY | VER | RUS |
| Race starts | 209 | 128 |
| Championships | 4 | 0 |
| Wins | 63 | 3 |
| Poles | 40 | 5 |
| Podiums | 112 | 15 |
| Points | 3,023.5 | 714 |
| Driver of the day | 41 | 1 |
“We’re now relying on what maybe could be,” Noble cautioned. “But what about a George Russell [and] Max Verstappen swap? Mercedes and Red Bull – there you go. How does that sound?”
Should this Toto Wolff radio message worry George Russell amid Mercedes uncertainty?
Based on his performances this year, Russell categorically doesn’t deserve to lose his seat. He outperformed Hamilton, statistically the best driver ever, in terms of both points and poles.
If he can comfortably beat Antonelli next year and Verstappen makes himself available, it will put Wolff in a near-impossible position. He won’t want to drop the Italian, whom he sees as a future superstar, so early, but many would see letting Russell go as unthinkable.
Wolff intervened in Russell’s feud with Verstappen at the season finale in Abu Dhabi, though he was careful to direct his anger only at Horner. The British driver will hope they grow distant in 2025.
Team principal Wolff openly cheered on Hamilton at the end of the race as he chased his teammate down. While he wanted him to sign off on a high, Nico Rosberg says Russell should question the message.
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